Director of Market Strategy & Energy Analytics

Carlton Buford

Director of Market Strategy & Energy Analytics

*******.******@*******.*** • 918-***-****

www.linkedin.com/in/carltonbuford • Humble, TX 77346

Transformative Energy & Commodity professional with extensive experience in market strategy, leveraging advanced analytics and economic insights to drive business growth and inform high-level decision-making in Electric Utility, Oil, Gas, and evolving Decarbonization sectors.

Instrumental in analyzing market structures and performing in-depth analyses on oil, natural gas, electricity, ethanol, ammonia, and hydrogen markets to support organizational goals. Lead power market fundamentals creating IRP’s in MISO.

Understand how strategic investments in US Ethanol Market, Carbon Capture, and US Transportation system, positioning United States for leadership in Road Transport Electrification, SAF Production, E-Fuel Production, and Decarbonization of hard-to-decarbonize sectors like Chemical, Cement, and Shipping over next five years.

Skilled in developing strategic analysis and recommendations for decarbonization efforts and sustainability initiatives, enhancing market competitiveness. Proficient in utilizing advanced tools like Aurora/Plexos/GPCM and macroeconomic models, as well as Python in modeling and forecasting fundamentals in electric, natural gas and oil markets.

Significant opportunities to save days/weeks in the evaluation of detailed short/long term power fundamental, by integrating Plexos AI analytic resources as a regular and integrated part of power market fundamental analysis

Adept at refining corporate strategies through collaboration with C-Suite executives, delivering insights on regulatory impacts, market trends, and economic policies, providing weekly market commentary and decision support to trade floor organizations.

Recognized that strategic investments in US ethanol market, carbon capture, and US transportation system, representing a significant comparative advantage for US industry if acted upon in next five years, fostering leadership in road transport electrification, SAF production, and E-fuel production.

Gas market will be extremely tight over the next 3 – 5 years pressuring power prices up significantly given gas generation on the margin in most US markets. LNG exports, AI Data Center Explosive Demand & less renewables are driving this outcome.

Areas of Expertise

Supply Demand Forecasting

Cross-Functional Team Leadership

Energy Procurement Optimization

C-Suite Market Commentary

Risk Mitigation Strategies

Business Development in Decarbonization Efforts

Power/Gas Models: Aurora,Plexos,Promod/GPCM

Electric Power, Oil, Gas & Chemical Markets

ISO Analysis: MISO,PJM,ERCOT,SPP,SERC,NYISO

Macroeconomic & Macro Bond/Bloomberg Analysis

Energy Market Strategy & Analysis

Oxford Economics Global Model

Fundamentals Support: Electric Util. IRP

Regulatory Compliance Administration

Data Science: Python & SQL

Professional Experience

Business Development Analyst Advario, Houston, TX

2022 — 2024

Global leader in bulk liquid & gas storage and logistics services across US, Europe, Asia, South America, and Middle East. Reported directly to Director of US Business Development, leading market views on North American decarbonization efforts and deal structure analytics for US ammonia and SAF projects in Texas City and Galveston, TX.

Developed in-house strategic market fundamentals for US and global ethanol, ammonia, hydrogen, and methanol markets, supporting over billion dollars in business development projects and leading analytics for North American long-term strategic plans. In-house market views provided competitive advantage for discussions with clients and stakeholders.

Mastered and upgraded business development long-term project financial evaluation tools, providing full financial proformas and scenario analysis for pipeline projects, integrating them with current operations and financial commitments. Used Python to link historical data with projections for comprehensive view of market fundamentals and financial performance.

Predicted US Gulf Coast Ethanol Market structural weaknesses six months in advance, providing Advario with strategy to capitalize on market's unique comparative advantage over next 5-10 years.

Economist AF-CMEA, Houston, TX

2014 — 2022

Economic think tank and advocacy firm. Developed innovative dialog-debate framework that maximized clear understanding of complex, contentious political issues, creating mutual engagement between all parties involved.

Developed “Making it Right, The Economics of the 100%,” comprehensive national economic strategy restoring robust economic growth across US, meeting climate change challenges, and eliminating public/private sector debt.

Implemented 50-75% productivity improvement framework, significantly enhancing business competitiveness and reducing reliance on excessive consumer borrowing or government subsidies.

Achieved significant enhancement in U.S. economic comparative advantages through structural productivity improvements, fostering growth in domestic manufacturing and service sector supply chains.

Authored “The Economic Gospel for the USA is Here providing innovative strategies and solutions to address America’s debt and polarization issues, while simultaneously launching startup that implements solutions proposed in book.

Economist Williams Companies, Tulsa, OK

2005 — 2014

Fortune 500 natural gas infrastructure company. Oversaw global macroeconomic and energy commodity market analyses, reporting to CFO and conducting semi-annual presentations to executive management and board, providing strategic recommendations that shaped corporate strategy. Prepared research, meetings, interviews, and discussions for semi-annual board meetings and annual strategy updates, enhancing effectiveness of corporate decision-making.

Saved company $2 billion by developing first North American NGL regional flow and utilization model, advising against $2 billion NGL pipeline investment. Project was canceled 18 months later, validating initial analysis.

Mitigated $500-800M in annual revenue losses by forecasting sustained bearish NGL market fundamentals, supporting shift from price-based contracts to fixed-fee contracts.

Rebuilt company’s macroeconomic and energy market analysis capabilities, previously managed by team of 12+, acting as one-man department delivering corporate and board-level strategic insights.

Influenced pricing strategy adjustments for NGLs ahead of market trends, further optimizing revenue and enhancing overall financial performance.

Senior Oil & Natural Gas Market Analyst Energy Future Holdings Corporation, Dallas, TX

2001 — 2005

Privately held energy holding company. Built proprietary long-term natural gas and oil market fundamentals, supporting creation of national electric power and energy trading business. Supported oil and gas traders with daily and monthly market fundamentals justifying trade decisions, establishing long-term economic fundamentals of US natural gas market.

Conducted comprehensive market research and analysis to identify emerging trends, informing trading strategies and risk management approaches.

Collaborated with cross-functional teams, providing insights that influenced company-wide decision-making on investment strategies and market entry.

Senior Natural Gas & Electric Power Market Analyst American Electric Power, Columbus, OH

1997 — 2001

One of largest US generators of electricity. Developed coal and SO2 market fundamentals supporting AEP’s national growth strategy and long-term electric power market modeling. Identified and leveraged GPCM natural gas modeling tools, providing long-term market view that guided executive strategy decisions.

Prepared and presented detailed market reports to senior management, highlighting critical insights and potential impacts on business operations and strategy.

Engaged in continuous monitoring of regulatory changes and market conditions, ensuring proactive adjustments to market models and trading strategies.

Education & Credentials

Bachelor of Science in Physics Baldwin Wallace College, Berea, OH

Bachelor of Science in Electrical Engineering Case Western Reserve University, Cleveland, OH

Boot Camp Certificate in Data Science/Machine Learning (Python) Dataquest Corporation, San Francisco, CA

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