Real Estate Data Science

Page * of *

RABINDRAN ABRAHAM

Lakeville, MA ****7 • 646-***-**** • *********.*******@*****.***

SUMMARY

Business and Data Economist with a track record of creating billions of dollars of value in opportunities that resist conventional analysis. Able to bring extraordinary clarity to complex businesses through the formulation of innovative and compelling frameworks for valuation, risk analysis and business management. Selected accomplishments include:

Developed Big Data analytical techniques to identify the third of a population of 3 million sub-prime individuals (FICOs between 600 and 700) whose creditworthiness matches that of super-prime populations (FICO over 740);

Secured $50M, the first large capital commitment, for LCN Capital Partners, a first-time private equity fund, by quantifying the hybrid, illiquid investment’s unique risk/reward proposition. First real estate-related commitment made by this top ten corporate pension fund since the Lehman bankruptcy;

Created innovative “Small Data” statistical and modeling methodologies to save hundreds of millions of dollars in fees while serving as the exclusive advisor to Rolls-Royce and Airbus on multi-billion-dollar aircraft transactions. EXPERIENCE

TRIPLEMINT, New York, NY Apr. 2018 – Jan. 2019

Head of Data Science

Customer acquisition – Built predictive models combining proprietary and third-party data to identify high-conversion apartment buyers/renters in the New York City residential real estate market. Up to 7X improvement in targeting.

Real estate pricing – Created apartment pricing models for New York boroughs of Manhattan and Brooklyn that significantly outperformed comparable models from Zillow, Redfin and other established residential real estate players.

Business operations – Designed option-theoretic and data-driven methodology to match real estate agents to customers resulting in a 50% increase in real estate deal closings. CLEAR TRANSACTIONAL ANALYTICS (CTA), Chappaqua, NY Feb. 2014 – Apr. 2018 Founder/President

Credit analytics for Aliya Financial Technologies – Developed econometric and machine learning approaches for Aliya, a consumer finance startup, in altogether novel ways so as to identify the third of a population of 3 million sub-prime individuals (FICOs between 600 and 700) whose true creditworthiness matches that of super-prime individuals (FICO in excess of 740). Some of the innovative approaches were necessitated by the need to (a) rigorously overcome substantial data quality and granularity problems and (b) combine disparate data sets.

Startup evaluation for Garden – Online consumer lender anchored by a better consumer credit scoring paradigm. Garden developed next-generation machine learning analytics to understand a borrower’s character so as to make better marketing, lending and risk management decisions. Other lenders rely almost exclusively on past performance to assess consumer credit.

Big Data analytics for OfferPad

o Ran all the data science programs at OfferPad, a startup online residential real estate company that is changing the way houses are sold. OfferPad buys and closes on a home in as little 5 days. The homeowner receives market value while eliminating the uncertainty of sale price and closing date. o Developed innovative strategy for radio and TV ad purchase resulting in 30% reduction in customer acquisition cost. LCN CAPITAL PARTNERS (LCN), L.P., New York, NY Nov. 2010 – Jan. 2014 Partner, Portfolio Management

Business evaluation – Developed novel quantitative and qualitative frameworks to assess true risk-adjusted returns against public benchmarks (bonds, stocks, REIT indices), and to overcome the survivorship bias inherent in assessing PE funds. As a consequence, secured the first large ($50 million) capital commitment for LCN (from a top ten corporate pension fund that had not made a real estate investment since the Lehman bankruptcy). The investor was the cornerstone to a successful first close on over $220 million in capital commitments.

Portfolio and risk management – Responsible for portfolio and individual investment valuation, portfolio optimization including portfolio/investment exit decision making, and assessing the impact of macro and micro market conditions on investment portfolio value and risk levels. Key focus was on (a) identifying and quantifying predictors of changes in lessee credit quality and real estate values and (b) incorporating a robust correlation structure spanning market and credit risks. HSBC BANK PLC, London, United Kingdom Jan. 2006 – Apr. 2009 Associate Director, Asset and Structured Finance

Developed approaches for valuing businesses and investment opportunities that reflect forward-looking market dynamics rather than project from historical performance.

Business reorganization – Led the creation for HSBC Rail (owner of a third of all British passenger rolling stock) of market-based (rather than cost-based) valuation and pricing platforms, improved data gathering practices, and more effective business opportunity review processes resulting in increased profitability. Page 2 of 2

R A B I N D R A N A B R A H A M

Competition Commission (CC) investigation of anti-competitive behavior of rolling stock lessors – Moved the CC away from accounting-based frameworks for measuring profitability to economics-based frameworks. Developed models of competition in markets with long-lived assets with significant sunk costs in order to demonstrate that outcomes in the rolling stock market were consistent with competitive behavior. This work proved decisive in achieving a favorable outcome for HSBC Rail: no forced divestiture of assets, no price regulation.

Corporate acquisitions and divestitures – Developed whole business valuation frameworks. Worked with rating agencies and advisors to establish parameters for potential financing structures. Assessed tax and accounting impact of structures. CLEAR TRANSACTIONAL ANALYTICS (CTA), New York, NY Feb. 2002 – Dec. 2005 Founder/President

Established consultancy to develop and execute strategic risk transfer and risk management solutions for aerospace clients. Founding principles: (a) complete sharing of CTA intellectual property with all parties to a transaction so as to best serve client’s interests – no black boxes; (b) continual advancement of IP to maintain competitive edge.

Key achievements included use of structural econometric techniques to ensure analytics were truly forward looking; and development of risk-neutral option-theoretic methodologies integrating risk mitigants (e.g. credit-linked asset options) and transaction costs in exercising real options.

Exclusive advisor to Rolls-Royce – $500 million sales finance risk transfer transaction. Structured deal to save $80 million in transaction costs: analytical framework enabled quantification of expected superior performance of client’s portfolio.

Exclusive advisor to Airbus – $1.2 billion sales finance risk transfer transaction. Chosen by Airbus over Babcock & Brown and Marsh & McLennan for advisory services.

Portfolio and risk management – Developed transfer pricing and risk management framework for all of Rolls-Royce’s sales finance activities. Framework enabled client to evaluate sales support initiatives, manage client’s risks, communicate corporate results and prospects to investors, analysts, and rating agencies. MORGAN STANLEY, New York, NY June 2000 – Jan. 2002 Associate, Aircraft Group & Securitized Products Group

Retained to expand MS’s range of solutions in the securitized products space. Key value add: introduction of econometrically-grounded stochastic methodologies in order to access non-traditional sources of capital and to achieve better transaction pricing.

Risk transfer on MS’s $5 billion aircraft portfolio – Proposed transaction to transfer cash flow risk into the insurance markets enabling MS to crystalize a gain on the acquisition of the portfolio. Traditional securitization strategies to crystalize this gain had become less attractive because of increased competition from portfolio buyers pursuing similar strategies.

Catastrophe risk securitization – $166 million transaction for a Swiss reinsurer was first ever catastrophe bond underwritten by MS. Achieved a whole letter grade rating improvement for the transaction vs. original indications by translating the technical know-how of experts in catastrophe risks (hurricanes, earthquakes, etc.) into a framework suitable for rating agency analysis.

THE RISCONSULTING GROUP, Boston, MA July 1997 – May 2000 Consultant

Structured and executed strategies for the transfer of non-traditional risks into the insurance markets. Created compelling frameworks for quantifying risk in long-tailed, illiquid asset classes that (a) employed sophisticated econometric analysis of low-frequency data and incorporated robust correlation structures spanning market, credit and asset risk to more accurately characterized risk/reward than approaches promoted by competitors; and (b) were relied upon by deal sponsors, insurers and rating agencies, who traditionally have used bespoke and incompatible approaches for risk analysis.

BAE Systems – Led $3.8 billion transfer of aircraft leasing cash flow and asset value risk into consortium of insurance companies. Deal resulted in an $800 million increase in BAE’s market value. Priced at half of what a comparable securitization would have cost. Remains the largest deal ever of its kind.

Rolls-Royce – Placement of $400 million of aircraft risk was first ever portfolio asset value risk transfer into either the reinsurance or capital markets. Request by Rolls to lead a follow-on transaction on a larger portfolio, which led to the creation of my own firm, Clear Transactional Analytics, in 2002.

Other notable transactions – Led transactions in automobile, shipping, and agricultural asset classes. EDUCATION

MASSACHUSETTS INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY, Cambridge, MA

Doctoral Program in Economics (ABD). Focus on microeconomics and corporate finance, 1988 – 1996 (ranked in the top 3 in class of approximately 30).

National Science Foundation Graduate Fellow, 1989 – 1992 (most prestigious merit-based full scholarship and stipend offered in the sciences and social sciences in the US).

Teaching assistant – Corporate Finance to MBA students and Mathematical Methods to economics PhD students. HARVARD COLLEGE, Cambridge, MA

AB, Mathematics, Cum Laude in General Studies, 1986.

Contact this candidate