JOHN D. HERRMANN

** **** **** ******: 917-***-****

Short Hills, NJ 07078 e-mail: ad0m2x@r.postjobfree.com

Tracking rank of Top-7 nonfarm payroll forecaster 2023. Bloomberg Best economic and interest rate forecaster, 2009-2012: ranked #4 in 2010, #5 in 2011, and ranked #2 for 2012 prior to joining Capula. Deliver actionable ideas. Regular client facing activity (institutional, central banks and retail). Commentator on CNBC, Bloomberg TV and radio, Barron’s Magazine, Reuters, NDTV, WSJ and IBD. Bulge-bracket trading floor and hedge fund experience, excellent market timing skills. Specialize in US fixed income markets. My wife and I have two young daughters in elementary school.

EMPLOYMENT

Herrmann Forecasting LLC, Short Hills, NJ Aug.2021-Present President and Founder. Head US Economist, Interest Rates Strategist Formed own company to serve over 400 institutional clients in more than 25 countries. Commentator on CNBC and Bloomberg TV. Forecasts developed from 241 hand-built macro-economic and interest rates models and templates. Produced accurate forecasts of real-time indicators & market developments. Formed timely tactical and strategic actionable analyses and recommendations. I am a Bloomberg Best Economics and Rates Forecaster.

● Lead discussions over the company’s views and forecasts upon Employment, Growth and Inflation outlooks.

● Lead discussions over the company’s views and forecasts upon U.S. interest rates and the Treasury yield curve.

● Offer Consulting services to Asset Managers, Central Banks, REITS, FHLBs, Hedge Funds and Corporations.

● Forecast Highlights: Resilient Nonfarm Payroll and Retail Sales growth in 2022-2023, 3.50% Unemployment Rate, No Recession in 2022-2023, Resilient Consumer Inflation of 2.50% or higher in 2023-2024, Large Federal Government Budget Deficits, 5.50% Federal Funds target rate, 5.00% 10-year Treasury Note yield. MUFG Securities Americas, Inc., New York, NY Feb.2013-Jun.2021 D. Senior US Fixed Income Securities Desk Strategist and Economist Report to Heads of Trading and Sales. Significantly grew client-facing and flow business in the USA, Tokyo, Ex- Japan Asia and Europe. Client focus: Money Markets, REITS, FHLBs, Central Banks, Asset Managers, Capital Markets and Corporate lending clients. Forecast FOMC announcements and key macroeconomic indicators for USA.

● Special emphasis upon a twenty-year forecast of USA’s labor force dynamics (versus Japan’s and EU’s).

● Key Forecast: low potential growth & low global inflation pressures for decade 2012-2020.

● Key strategic Rates Strategies on US Treasury yield curve: 2s-10s Steepener (May 2013); 5s-30s Flattener (Jan. 2014 - Jan. 2016), 2s-10s Flattener & Inversion (Jan. 2016 - Oct. 2018), “Pivot” rate cutting cycle (Nov. 2018), Zero Rates long EDZ0 (Feb. 2020), 2s-30s Steepener (April 15, 2020), 5s-30s Flattener (March 15, 2021). Capula Investment Management, London, UK Mar.2012-Dec.2012 MD. Senior Economist

Report directly to CIO (Yan Ho). Forecast and review all key macroeconomic indicators for USA and EU.

● Special emphasis upon a ten-year forecast of USA’s labor force dynamics (versus Japan’s and EU’s).

● Key Forecast: low global inflation pressures for decade 2012-2022.

● Developed RV trades on: core-periphery in EU, U.S. Treasury yield curve strategies. State Street Global Markets, Boston, MA Feb.2010-Jan.2012 VP. Senior Fixed Income Securities Strategist and Desk Economist Head US fixed income and economic forecaster. Co-launched Fixed Income Strategy product suite. Frequent client- facing activities; spoke at numerous conferences. Regular appearances on CNBC & Bloomberg TV, radio and print.

● Refined GDP and payroll econometric models, delivered accurate and actionable real-time economic and interest rates forecasts (Bloomberg Best Economics Forecaster 2009-2012).

● Developed long-term economic and interest rate forecasts for weekly, quarterly and annual publications.

● Speaker at Hearst Foundation’s 2011 Annual Board of Directors’ Meeting.

● Forecast Highlights: 0.30% in 2-yr Treasury yield, 2.30% in 10-yr Treasury yield in 2010 and 1.74% in 2011. Merrill Lynch, New York, NY Sep.2006-Jan.2009

VP. Head US Fixed Income Desk Sales and Trading Economist and Interest Rates Strategist Functioned as head US fixed income desk economist and rates strategist for FICC-66. Forecast, previewed and squawked all real-time economic data releases, Fed-speak and announcements and market moving developments.

● In 2007, launched ML RateLab Strategy - Merrill Lynch’s desk strategy commentary - with Bassman, Burke and Jackson: provided real-time, actionable, tactical and strategic strategy on the U.S. macroeconomy and monetary policy to Treasury Note yield curve, FFR and ED futures contracts, swap spreads and corporate credits.

● Travelled extensively throughout the world to meet with clients and articulate desk views and strategies.

● Forecast Highlights: Nov. 24, 2007: blow-up of Negam Option Arm market => 2s-10s yield spread to 245.0 bps. JOHN D. HERRMANN Page Two

Cantor Fitzgerald LLC, New York, NY Apr.2003-Aug.2006 VP. Chief US Economist, Money Market Desk Strategist Developer and principal author of Cantor Viewpoint, Cantor Fitzgerald’s real-time, electronic market and strategy commentary vehicle. Headed US economics research and money market strategy. Coordinated research, strategy and sales efforts. Frequent guest and oft quoted in the media (Bloomberg & Dow Jones print, radio and television).

● Produced daily U.S. economic and fixed income strategic report to over 170 institutional clients in 15 countries.

● Developed long-term economic and interest rate forecasts for quarterly and annual publications and surveys.

● Round-Table Speaker at the Dow-Jones Annual 2005 Market Outlook Conference, January 2005.

● Forecast Highlights: Cyclical Bull Equity market and cyclical bear Treasury Market May 2003; and Bursting of US Housing Bubble, Oct. 31, 2005 (Barron’s Magazine). IDEA Global LLC, New York, NY Jan.2001-Apr.2003

VP. Chief US Economist, Money Market Strategist

Head of US economics research, and co-lead interest rate and Fed calls (with Josh Stiles).

● Created and maintained 137 models-templates of US economy, with live data feeds.

● Prepared daily forecasts of US economic releases and open market operations and Fed activity for government bond trading desk and hedge fund clients.

● Many appearances on financial news stations: Bloomberg, CNBC, BBC, Reuters TV, Yahoo Finance, etc..

● Keynote speaker on Economics at MBIA’s Annual Conference, October 2002, Bermuda.

● Forecast Highlight: The burst of the Wintel platform, capital build-out, over 2001-2003. Rabobank Nederland, New York, NY Jun.1997-Jan.2001 VP. Chief Fixed Income US Economist and Interest Rates Desk Strategist Head of US Economics and US Interest Rates Research and Strategy. Produced Rabobank’s near-term and long-term U.S. economics and rates outlook. Reported to heads of government bond and equity trading desks in NY & Utrecht.

● Developed proprietary US Economic, Treasury yield curve, swap spreads and Fed reaction models.

● Created and maintained 93 models-templates of US economy, with live data feeds.

● Models predicted: strong economic growth, low inflation and a flat Treasury Note yield curve for 1997-2000.

● Wrote client presentations and traveled internationally to visit institutional fixed income clients (Robeco, Fortis, Aegon, Delta Lloyd and Phillips Pension Funds).

● Forecast Highlight: Asset Rotation to Treasury Notes from Equity holdings (July 2000).

● 1998: The Open for Business Corporate Tennis Challenge (Flushing Meadows) – Men’s Double Champion. EDUCATION

Ph.D. Mathematical Economics, Cornell University.

M.A. Macro-Economics & Monetary Economics, University of Rochester. B.A. Macro-Economics, Summa Cum Laude, Seton Hall University. Study abroad: Université de Genève. Swiss National Science Foundation Grant. Licenses: Series 7, Series 63, SIE, NFA Swaps Proficiency Long Track. PUBLICATIONS, PRESENTATIONS AND AFFILIATIONS

● “A Continuity Property for Local Price Adjustment Mechanisms,” Journal of Mathematical Economics, 31

(1999), with Peter J. Kahn, pp. 419 - 453.

● Referee: Journal of Monetary Economics, Econometrica, and Jrnl. of Economic Dynamics/Control.

● Academic Presentations: UCLA; UC-Berkeley; Northwestern; Duke; Univ. of Minnesota; IU-PUI; Rochester; Econometrics Society – Barcelona; Fields Institute – Waterloo CA; Society of Economic Dynamics & Control – Capri; Guadeloupe; Geneva Suisse.

● Memberships: National Association of Business Economists, AEA, and Econometrics Society.

● Round-Table Speaker at Annual NY Financial Planners Assoc. Meeting: 2006, 2011, 2012.

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