Management Engineering

Johan Ren van Dorp

Faculty Web page: http://www.seas.gwu.edu/~dorpjr/

**** * ******, ** **** G Street, NW Suite 135 Washington, DC 20052

Voice 202-***-**** Fax 202 -994-0245 E-mail abqho7@r.postjobfree.com

Education

1 998 - D.Sc., Operations Research Department, The George Washington University

1991 - Registered Technological Designer, Mathematical Control- and Policy Modeling,

Delft University of Technology, The Netherlands

1989 - M.S., Mathematics & Computer Science, Delft University of Technology, The

Netherlands

Experience

September 1999 to Present: Assistant Professor, Engineering Management and Systems

Engineering Department, The George Washington University, Washington D.C.

September 1997 to August 1999: Visiting Assistant Professor, Engineering Management

Department, The George Washington University, Washington D.C.

January 1994 August 1997: Research Scientist, Operations Research Department, The

George Washington University, Washington, D.C.

March 1993 December 1993: Project Engineer, National Aerospace Laboratory,

Amsterdam, The Netherlands

April 1992 November 1992: Research Associate, Operations Research Department, The

George Washington University

January 1991 January 1992: Research Analyst, Risk Analysis Department, DSM

Research, The Netherlands

December 1988 August 1989:Graduate Research Assistant, The Shell Research and

Technology Centre, Amsterdam (SRTCA)

Honors and Awards

1 999 - Semifinalist in the 1999 Franz Edelman Prize Awarded by Informs

1998 - Inducted to the international honor society Omega Rho

1989 - Graduated Cum Laude (MS) from Delft University of Technology, The Netherlands

Research Interests

Financial Engineering, Simulation Modeling; Transportation Risk Assessment; Probabilistic

Risk Assessment; Risk Management Analysis; Integration of data and Engineering/Expert

Judgment; Distribution Theory; Dependence Modeling; Accelerated Life Testing;

Reliability Analysis;

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Research Contracts and Grants

2 002-2004: "Collaborative Research: Speaking the Truth in Maritime Risk Assessment"

National Science Foundation award SES-0213700, PI - $139,305 Start Date: 8-15-2002,

End Date: 8-15-2004.

2002: Development of a Maritime Simulation for San Francisco Bay, San Francisco Bay

Area Water Transit Authority (sub Contract to ABS Consulting), PI -$144,889 Start Date:

1-3-2002, End Date: 31-12-02.

2002: Modified Prince William Sound Simulation . RCAC (Regional Citizen Advisory

Council, Alaska). PI - $17,594 Start Date: 23-4-2002, End Date: 15-6-2002

2000 - 2002: Incremental Seismic Rehabilitation Manual support Project . Subcontract to

FEMA funded Project, Incremental Seismic Rehabilitation Manual (RPH EMW-2000-RP-

0023). Co-PI - $17,409 Start Date: September 26, 2000, End Date: September 25, 2002.

(PI of Award: J.R. Harrald, The George Washington University)

1999 - 2000: The Collection, Synthesis, and Quality Assessment of Data Describing the

Response to Human Needs following the 1999 Turkey Earthquakes, Co-PI, $75,000 Start

Date: 10-1-1999, End Date: 9-30-2000. (PI of NSF Award: J.R. Harrald, The George

Washington University).

1998 1999: Risk Mitigation in Passenger Vessel Operations, Washington State Ferry

Risk Assessment, Washington State Transportation Commission, Olympia, Washington,

Co-PI $770,000 Start Date: 7-1-1998, End Date: 7-1-2000. (PI of Award: J.R. Harrald,

The George Washington University).

Journal Publications (To Appear)

1. J.R. van Dorp (2003). "Statistical Dependence through Common Risk Factors: With

Applications in Uncertainty Analysis". To appear in European Journal of Operations

Research .

2. J.R van Dorp and T.A.Mazzuchi. A General Bayes Exponential Inference Model

for Accelerated Life Testing, To appear in Journal of Statistical Planning and Inference,

2002.

Journal Publications (Published)

1. J.R van Dorp and S.Kotz. Generalizations of Two Sided Power Distributions and

their Convolution, Communications in Statistics: Theory and Methods, Vol. 32, No. 9, pp.

1703 1723, 2003.

2. J.R van Dorp and S. Kotz. Generalized Trapezoidal Distributions, Metrika, Vol.

58, Issue 1, pp. 85-97, 2003.

3. J.R.W. Merrick, J.R. van Dorp, J.P. Blackford, G.L. Shaw, T.A. Mazzuchi and J.R.

Harrald. A Traffic Density Analysis of Proposed Ferry Service Expansion in San

Francisco Bay Using a Maritime Simulation Model, Reliability Engineering and System

Safety, Vol. 81, No. 2, pp. 119-132, 2003.

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4. J.R.W. Merrick, J. R. van Dorp, T. Mazzuchi, J. Harrald, J. Spahn and M. Grabowski.

The Prince William Sound Risk Assessment . Interfaces, Vol. 32, No. 6, pp.25-40,

2002.

5. S. Kotz and J.R van Dorp. A Versatile Bivariate Distribution on a Bounded

Domain: Another Look at the Product Moment Correlation, Journal of Applied

Statistics, Vol. 29, No.8, pp. 1165-1179, 2002.

6. J.R van Dorp and S. Kotz. A Novel Extension of the Triangular Distribution and its

Parameter Estimation, The Statistician, 51, No. 1, 63-79, 2002.

7. J.R van Dorp and S. Kotz. The Standard Two Sided Power Distribution and its

Properties: with Applications in Financial Engineering, The American Statistician, 56,

No. 2, 90-99, 2002.

8. J.R. van Dorp J.R.W. Merrick, J.R. Harrald, T.A. Mazzuchi, and M. Grabowski,. A

Risk Management procedure for the Washington State Ferries, Journal of Risk

Analysis,Vol. 21, No. 1, 2001.

9. M. Grabowski, J.R.W. Merrick, J.R. Harrald, T.A. Mazzuchi, and J.R. van Dorp

Risk Modeling in Distributed, Large Scale Systems, IEEE Transactions on Systems,

Man, Cybernetics PART A: Systems and Humans, Vol. 30, No. 6, 2000.

10. J.R. van Dorp J.R.W. Merrick, J.R. Harrald, T.A. Mazzuchi, M. Grabowski, and J.E

Spahn. A Systems approach to managing oil transportation risk in Prince William

Sound, Systems Engineering, Vol 3. pp. 128-142, 2000.

11. J.R van Dorp and T.A.Mazzuchi. Solving for the parameters of a Beta Distribution

under two quantile constraints, Journal of Statistical Computation and Simulation, Vol.

67, pp. 189-201, 2000.

12. J.R van Dorp and M.R. Duffey. Modeling Statistical Dependence in Risk Analysis

for Project Networks, International Journal of Production Economics, Vol. 58., 17-29,

1999.

13. M.R. Duffey and J.R. van Dorp. Risk Analysis for Large Engineering Projects:

Modeling Cost Uncertainty for Ship Production Activities, Journal of Engineering

Valuation and Cost Analysis, Vol. 2, 285-301, 1999.

14. J.R. Harrald, T.A. Mazzuchi, J. E. Spahn, J.R. van Dorp J.R.W. Merrick, S. Shrestha,

M. Grabowski. Using System Simulation to Model the Impact of Human Error in a

Maritime Risk Assessment . Safety Science, Vol. 30, pp. 235-247, 1998.

15. J.R. van Dorp, T.A. Mazzuchi and R. Soyer. Sequential inference and decision

making for single mission systems development, Journal of Statistical Planning and

Inference, Vol. 62, No 2, 207-218, 1997.

16. J.R. van Dorp, T.A. Mazzuchi, Lt. Gen. G. E. Fornell and L.R. Pollock. A Bayes

Approach to Step-Stress Accelerated Life Testing, IEEE Transactions on Reliability,

Vol. 45, No.3, 491-498, 1996.

Journal Publication (In Review)

1. J.R. van Dorp and S. Kotz (2003). " Uneven Two-Sided Power Distributions: With

Applications in Econometric Models". Submitted to Journal of Econometric Theory.

2. P. Szwed, J. Rene van Dorp, J.R.W.Merrick, T.A. Mazzuchi and A. Singh (2003). A

Bayesian Paired Comparison Approach for Relative Accident Probability Assessment

with Covariate Information, submitted to European Journal of Operations Research .

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Book Chapter

1. J.R. van Dorp and T.A. Mazzuchi, Parameter Specification of The Beta Distribution

and Its Dirichlet Extensions Utilizing Quantiles . To Appear in Handbook of Beta

Distribution and Applications, A.K. Gupta and S. Nadarajah, ed., Marcel Dekker. Inc.

Conference Proceedings

1. J.R. van Dorp, A Distribution for Modeling Dependence Caused by Common Risk

Factors, ESREL Conference Proceedings, pp. 551 - 558, Swets and Zeitlinger

Publishers, Lisse, The Netherlands, 2003.

2. J.R. van Dorp & T.A. Mazzuchi, A General Bayes Weibull Inference Model for

Accelerated Life Testing, ESREL Conference Proceedings, pp. 559 - 566, Swets and

Zeitlinger Publishers, Lisse, The Netherlands, 2003.

3. P. S. Szwed and J.R. van Dorp, A Bayesian Model for Rare Event Risk Assessment

Using Expert Judgment about Paired Scenario Comparisons, ASEM National

Conference Proceedings, pp. 444-453, 2002.

4. J.R.W. Merrick, J.R. van Dorp, J.R. Harrald, T.A. Mazzuchi Modeling risk in the

dynamic environment of maritime transportation", Proceedings of the 2001 Winter

Simulation Conference, pp. 1090 1099, 2001.

5. Wayne L. Andrews, Jr. and J. Rene van Dorp, An Oblique Approach to Nuclear

Criticality Safety Using a Causal Sequence Model to Introduce Risk Interventions,

PVP-Vol. 417, Emerging Technologies: Advances Topics in Computational Mechanics and

Risk Assessment, Editors: D.R. Metzger, J. Tang, and Y. Urthaler, pp. 1 - 7, 2001.

6. Harrald, T.A. Mazzuchi, J.R.W. Merrick, John Spahn, J.R. van Dorp and M.

Grabowski. Prince William Sound Risk Assessment: System Risk Analysis by

Simulation and Expert Judgment . Conference Proceedings 22 Risk Management in the

Marine Transportation System, Transportation Research Board, National Research

Council, pp. 65-72, 2000.

7. R. C. Waters, J. Deason and J.R. van Dorp (2000). Technical Management: Key to

Enterprise Success in the 21st Century, proceedings 2000 ASEM National Conference,

October 4-7, 2000, Washington D.C., 2000.

8. J.R. Harrald, T.A. Mazzuchi, J.R.W. Merrick, J.R. van Dorp and M. Grabowski.

Assessing Risk in the Washington State Ferry System . Proceedings, TIEMS 99

Delft, Netherlands, pp. 427-437, 1999.

9. J.R. Harrald, T.A. Mazzuchi, J.R.W. Merrick, J.R. van Dorp and M. Grabowski. The

Analysis of Alternative Escort Vessel Requirements in Prince William Sound .

Proceedings, 1999 International Oil Spill Conference, March, 4-03-407-*-***.

10. J.R. Harrald, T.A. Mazzuchi, J.R.W. Merrick, J.E. Spahn and J.R. van Dorp. Hidden

assumptions and Misleading Data: Accounting for Human Error in Maritime Risk

Assessment . Proceedings 1997 of Maritime Operations: The Human Element Conference,

1 997

11. J.R. Harrald, T.A. Mazzuchi, J.R.W. Merrick, J.E. Spahn and J.R. van Dorp. System

Simulation: A Risk Management Tool for Prince William Sound, Proceedings 1997

International Oil Spill Conference, pp. 545-550, 1997.

12. J.R. Harrald, T.A. Mazzuchi, J.R.W. Merrick, J.E. Spahn and J.R. van Dorp. Using

Simulation to Model the Impact of Human Error in Maritime Risk Assessment .

Proceedings 1997 Conference of the International Emergency Management Society (TIEMS), pp.

41-54, 1997

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1 3. T.A. Mazzuchi, R. Cooke, J.R. van Dorp, J.M. van Noortwijk and R. Dekker,. The

Elicitation and Use of Expert Judgment Elicitation for Maintenance

Optimization, The World Congress on Expert Systems proceedings, (J. Liebowitz, ed.),

Pergamon Press, pp. 888-896, 1991

Technical Reports

1. J.R. van Dorp, J.R.W. Merrick, J.R. Harrald, T.A. Mazzuchi, G.L. Shaw and J.P.

Blackford San Francisco Bay Exposure Assessment, Final Report submitted to San

Francisco Bay Water Transit Authority, 2002.

2. J.R. van Dorp and J.R.W. Merrick Modified Prince William Sound Simulation, Final

Report submitted to RCAC (Regional Citizen Advisory Council, Alaska), 2002

3. J.R. van Dorp, J.R.W. Merrick, J.R. Harrald and T.A. Mazzuchi The Washington

State Ferry Risk Assessment, Final Report submitted to Blue Ribbon Pannel on

Washington State Ferry Safety, submitted to Washington Sate Transportation

Commission, 1999.

4. J.R. van Dorp. A General Bayesian Inference Model for Accelerated Life Testing,

Dissertation, The George Washington University, Washington, D.C., 1997.

5. J.R. Harrald, T.A. Mazzuchi, J. R.W. Merrick, J.R. van Dorp, S. K. Shrestha, J.E.

Spahn and M. Grabowski. Prince William Sound Risk Assessment Final Report,

Submitted to ADEC, APSC/SERVS, PWS Regional Citizens Advisory Council, US

Coast Guard, PWS Shipping Companies, 1996

6. J.R. Harrald, T.A. Mazuchi, J.R. van Dorp and J.E. Spahn, U.S. Coast Guard, Port

and Waterway Risk Assessment Guide, The George Washington University &

Institute for Crisis and Disaster Management, March 1996.

7. M. Grabowski, J.R. Harrald, T.A. Mazzuchi, J.R. van Dorp and J.E Spahn.

Evaluating and Monitoring Port and Waterway Risk for the Lower Mississippi River;

PHASE II report, Submitted to the board of commissioners of the Port of New

Orleans, Washington D.C, 1995

8. M.R. Duffey, J.R. van Dorp, L.K. Ruderapatna, P.Felix. Project Risk Analysis for

Ship Production, (with), Final Report for research funded by ARPA grant of

December 1991, "Design of the Virtual Shipyard", project No. DTMA 91-94-H-

00034, 1994

9. M.A. Piers, M.P. Loog, M.K.H. Giesberts, J.R. van Dorp and M.J.H. Couwenberg.

Analysis of external safety around Schiphol International Airport (in Dutch),

Contract Report National Aerospace Laboratory (CR 93485 L), Amsterdam, 1993

10. J.R. van Dorp. Confidence limits for Individual Risk and Societal Risk around

Schiphol International Airport, Internal Report National Aerospace Laboratory

(IW93022), Amsterdam, 1993

11. J.R. van Dorp. Track extensions for Noise calculations (in Dutch), Internal Report

National Aerospace Laboratory (IW93021), Amsterdam, 1993

12. J.R. van Dorp and T.A. Mazzuchi, R. Dekker, R. Cooke. A Framework for Eliciting

Lifetime Distributions from Maintenance Engineers, Working paper, Institute for

Reliability and Risk Analysis, The George Washington University, Washington D.C.,

1992.

13. J.R. van Dorp. Dependence Modeling for Uncertainty Analysis, Internal report

TU Delft (Thesis Registered Technological Designer two year post-graduate

program), Delft, 1991.

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1 4. J.R. van Dorp. Expert Opinion and Maintenance Data to Determine Lifetime

Distributions, Internal report TU Delft (Masters Graduation Thesis), Delft, 1989.

Software Development

1. J.R. van Dorp and J.R.W. Merrick. San Francisco Bay Maritime Simulation Model,

used by San Francisco Bay Water Transit Authority, 1999

2. J.R. van Dorp and J.R.W. Merrick. Washington State Ferry Risk Analysis Decision

Support Tool, used by the Washington State Transportation Commisision, 1999

3. J.R. van Dorp, J.R.W. Merrick and J.E. Spahn. Prince William Sound Risk Analysis

Decision Support Tool, used by the Prince William Sound Risk Assessment Steering

Committee (ADEC, APSC/SERVS, PWS Regional Citizens Advisory Council, US

Coast Guard, PWS Shipping Companies), 1996

4. J.R. van Dorp. $MART 1.4, Step-stress Model for Accelerated Reliability Testing,

used by USAF and Contractors, Patent Pending, 1996

5. J.R. van Dorp. GRASP 1.0, General Risk Assessment for Sizable Projects, used by

the George Washington University, 1995

6. R.M. Cooke, J.R. van Dorp and V. Kritchallo, UNICORN, UNcertainty analysIs

with CORrelatioNs, published by AEA Technology for the European Safety and

Reliability Association, used by the Delft University of Technology, 1994

Invited Talks/Seminars

Managing Port Safety and Security Risk Using Dynamic Simulation 2003 Institute for

Defense and Homeland Security Research Summit, June 25, Ronald Reagan Building

Washington, DC., http://www.idhs.org/summit/topics.html, 2 003.

A Systems Approach Towards Risk Intervention Prioritization in the Maritime

Environment NATO Advanced Research Workshop (Moskow, Russia), 2002

Risk Analysis & Risk Management, Aviation Safety Certificate Program, The George

Washington University, 2000

A Systems Approach towards Risk Intervention Prioritization in the Maritime

Environment Maritime Operations: The Human Element, The Fifth Annual Conference

on the Ship s Most Important Safety and Anti-Pollution System, Risk Assessment

Experience and Studies, Washington D.C., 2000

A Systems Approach towards Risk Intervention Prioritization, Disaster & Risk

Management Workshop, Bogazici University, Istanbul,Turkey:, 1999

The Washington State Ferry Risk Assessment, US Coast Guard Headquarters MSE 1

Division, Washington, D.C., 1999

Conference Presentations

A Distribution for Modeling Dependence Caused by Common Risk Factors, European

Safety and Reliability Conference, Maastricht, The Netherlands, 2003.

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A General Bayes Weibull Inference Model for Accelerated Life Testing, European Safety

and Reliability Conference, Maastricht, The Netherlands, 2003.

Modeling risk in the dynamic environment of maritime transportation" INFORMS Winter

Simulation Conference, Washington, DC, 2001

A Systematic Approach Towards Risk Intervention Prioritization, EURO Conference,

Rotterdam, The Netherlands, 2001

A Systems Approach towards Risk Intervention Prioritization in the Maritime

Environment, Risk Analysis Conference, Arlington VA, 2000

A General Exponential Inference Model for Accelerated Life Testing, INFORMS

Conference, Philadelphia, 1999

Risk Based Bidding in Project Management, INFORMS Conference, Dallas Texas, 1997

A General Bayesian Model for Accelerated Life Testing, INFORMS Conference, Dallas

Texas, 1997

A Framework for Eliciting Lifetime Distributions from Engineers, INFORMS

Conference, 1996

Small Sample Accelerated Reliability Testing, NATO ASI Conference: Reliability and

Maintenance of Complex Systems, Antalya-Turkey, 1995

Optimal Stopping in Reliability Growth Testing, The 45-th NBER-NSF Seminar on

Bayesian Inference in Econometrics and Statistics, Duke University, North Carolina, 1992

Graduate Theses Supervised

Current: 4 D.Sc. Students - Lauren Schiff, Mohammed Ashry, Marc Greenberg and

Amita Singh.

Graduated: 2 D.Sc. Students Paul Szwed A Bayesian Model for Risk Assessment using

Expert Judgments about Paired Scenario Comparisons, August 2002. Noraida

Abdul Ghani The Strategic Location and Allocation of Emergency Medical

Services Vehicles Under Uncertainty, September 2002.

1 MS. Student Marc Greenberg An Activity Network Simulation Approach

for Estimating Production Schedule of a Convertible Containership, April

1998

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Teaching

Lead Professor:

ApSc 115 - Engineering Analysis III (Undergraduate intro course Probability and Statistics)

EMSE 234 - Management of Risk and Vulnerability for Natural and Technological

Hazards (Graduate, Five times).

EMSE 173 Discrete System Simulation (Undergraduate, Once)

EMSE 273 - Discrete System Simulation (Graduate, Once)

EMSE 388 - Quantitative Method in Cost Engineering (Graduate, three times)

Course Instructor:

EMSE 182 - Quality Control and Acceptance Sampling (Undergraduate, Once)

EMSE 269 - Elements of Decision Making and Problem Solving (Graduate, 11 times).

EMSE 282 - Quality Control and Acceptance Sampling (Graduate, Once)

Professional Activities

Membership Institute for Operations Research and Management Science

(INFORMS), Sigma-Xi The Scientific Research Society, Society for

Risk Analysis (SRA), The International Honor Society Omega Rho

(OMEGA RHO)

Journal Referee Metrika, Journal of Statistical Planning and Inference, Risk Analysis,

An International Journal

Proposal Review NSF Proposal Review Panel Hazard Mitigation and Response .

Program Director: Miriam Heller.

Other Deputy Technical Program Chair, American Society for Engineering

Management 2000 National Conference, October 4 7, Washington

D.C., 2000. Coordinated paper review process and final publication

of the proceeding both in paper and electronically (CD) form.

Convener, Science Engineering and Apprentice Program, 2001,

2002, 2003.

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