Software Management
Resume:
REFIK SOYER
Department of Decision Sciences, Funger Hall 415
The George Washington University
Washington, DC 20052
Tel: 202-***-**** Fax: 202-***-****
E-mail: *****@***.*** WEB: http://www.gwu.edu/~business/decisionsciences/rsoyer.htm
BORN: October 15, 1956
CITIZENSHIP STATUS: Resident Alien, 1985
EDUCATION
D. Sc. Operations Research, The George Washington University (USA), 1985
M. Sc. Operational Research, Sussex University (ENGLAND), 1979
B. A. Economics, Bogazici University (TURKEY), 1978
AREAS OF INTEREST
Bayesian Statistics, Reliability Analysis, Stochastic Modeling, Time Series Analysis,
and Decision Analysis.
EXPERIENCE
DIRECTOR, The Institute for Integrating Statistics in Decision Sciences, School of Business,
January 2007 Present.
PROFESSOR, Department of Decision Sciences (joint appointment with Statistics Department),
The George Washington University, January 2006 Present.
PROFESSOR, Department of Management Science,
The George Washington University, Sept. 1996 December 2005.
ASSOCIATE PROFESSOR, Department of Management Science,
The George Washington University, Sept. 1990 - Sept. 1996.
PROGRAM DIRECTOR, Management Decision Making Program,
The George Washington University, September 1997 - July 1998.
PROGRAM DIRECTOR, Decision Systems Program,
The George Washington University, July 1990 - July 1994.
ASSISTANT PROFESSOR, Department of Management Science,
The George Washington University, Sept. 1987 - Sept. 1990.
RESEARCH ASSOCIATE, Institute for Reliability and Risk Analysis,
The George Washington University, May 1985 - present.
ASSISTANT PROFESSORIAL LECTURER, Department of Operations
Research, The George Washington University, Sept. 1985 - June 1987.
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HONORS
Fellow, American Statistical Association (April 2006)
Fellow, Turkish Statistical Association (April 2003)
Elected Member, International Statistical Institute (1991)
Elected Member, Omega Rho (Operations Research Honor Society)
Elected Member, Sigma Xi (Scientists Honor Society)
Elected Member, Tau Beta Pi (Engineering Honor Society)
Dean Scholar 2006-2007, School of Business, George Washington University
Dean Scholar 2007-2008, School of Business, George Washington University
Dean Scholar 2007-2009, School of Business, George Washington University
Visiting Scholar, ISDS, Duke University, Fall Semester 1994.
Visiting Scholar, Duke University Medical Center, January - March 2002
Visiting Scholar, IE Department, Bogazici University, April 2002.
PROFESSIONAL SOCIETIES
Member, American Statistical Association (ASA)
Member, International Statistical Institute (ISI)
Member, Institute of Mathematical Statistics (IMS)
Member, International Society for Bayesian Analysis (ISBA)
Member, Institute for Operations Research and the Management Sciences (INFORMS)
PROFESSIONAL ACTIVITIES
Guest Editor: Special Issue of the Applied Stochastic Models in Business and Industry on
Games and Decisions in Reliability and Risk Analysis, 2010.
Associate Editor: Journal of the American Statistical Association, Theory and Methods,
January 1992 - January 1994.
Associate Editor: Applied Stochastic Models in Business and Industry, January 2008 Present.
Associate Editor: Journal of Statistical Research, January 2004 - Present.
Associate Editor: Hacettepe Journal of Mathematics and Statistics, April 2008 - Present.
Editorial Board Member: Advances in Operations Research, August 2008 May, 2010.
Section Editor: Encyclopedia of Quality and Reliability, Wiley, October 2005 - Present.
Board Member: The International Association for Statistical Computing Council,
May 1, 1997 - September 1, 2001.
Vice-President: The International Association for Statistical Computing,
September 1, 2001 - August 31, 2003.
Chairman: The First Symposium on Games and Decisions in Reliability and Risk, The George
Washington University, Washington, D.C. May 27 - 28, 2009.
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Chairman: The 40th Meeting of the NBER - NSF Seminar on Bayesian Inference in
Econometrics and Statistics, The George Washington University, Washington, D.C. May 4 - 5,
1990.
Chairman: Bayesian Statistics Cluster, EURO/INFORMS Joint International Meeting, Istanbul,
Turkey, July 6-10, 2003.
Co-Chairman: Program Committee of The Fifth World Meeting of the International Society for
Bayesian Analysis (ISBA), Istanbul, Turkey, August, 16-18, 1997.
Co-Chairman: Washington Statistical Society Physical and Engineering Sciences Section, June
1987 - June 1990, July 1992 - June 1994.
Member: Publications Committee, The International Association for Statistical Computing
Council, September 1, 2001 - August 31, 2003.
Member: Scientific Program Committee of the Sixth Workshop on Bayesian Inference in
Stochastic Processes, Bressanone, Italy, June, 18-20, 2009.
Member: Scientific Program Committee of the Third Workshop on Bayesian Inference in
Stochastic Processes, La Manga, Spain, May, 15-18, 2003.
Member: Organizing Committee of International Conference in Reliability and Survival
Analysis, De Kalb, Illinois, USA, May, 21-24, 1998.
Member: Organizing Committee of The Fifth World Meeting of the International Society for
Bayesian Analysis (ISBA), Istanbul, Turkey, August, 16-18, 1997.
Member: Nominating Committee of International Society for Bayesian Analysis (ISBA),
January, 1997- December 1997.
Member: Program Committee of North America Meeting of the International Society for
Bayesian Analysis (ISBA), Chicago, August 2-3, 1996.
Member: Program Committee of The Thirld World Meeting of the International Society
for Bayesian Analysis (ISBA), Oxaca, Mexico, September 29-30, 1995.
Member: Research Subcommittee of the American Statistical Association Committee on Quality
and Productivity, July 1985 - June 1988.
Member: Program Committee for the International Research Conference on Reliability and
Quality Control, Columbia, Missouri, May 17-19, 1988.
Referee: American Statistician (1989, 1986, 1985), Annals of Applied Statistics (2009), Applied
Stochastic Models for Business & Industry (2009, 2008, 2005), Biometrical Journal (2001),
Communications in Statistics (1985), Decision Analysis (2008), Expert Systems with
Applications (1991, 1990), European Journal of Operational Research (2008, 2007, 2005, 2004,
2002, 2001, 1997, 1996), IEEE Transactions on Reliability (1989-1996), IEEE Transactions on
Software Engineering (1986), IEEE Transactions on Systems, Man and Cybernetics (1999), IIE
Transactions (2007, 2005, 1999, 1998, 1997), International Statistical Review (2007),
International Jour. of Production Economics (2008), Jour. of Amer. Stat. Assoc. (2005, 2002,
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2001, 1998, 1997, 1993, 1992,1991), Jour. of Computational & Graphical Statistics (1993),
Jour. of Econometrics (2000), Jour. of International Money & Finance (2007), Jour. of Official
Statistics (2002), Journal of Pattern Recognition Research (2009), Jour. of Physical Distribution
& Logistics Management (1991), Jour. of Statistical Planning & Inference (2009, 2008, 2000,
1999, 1997, 1996, 1995, 1992, 1984), Management Science (2003), Managerial & Decision
Economics (1998), Methodology and Computing in Applied Probability (2000), Metron (2004),
Naval Research Logistics (2010, 2008, 2007, 2005, 2004, 1999, 1998, 1992, 1990, 1987, 1985),
Operations Research (2009, 2000, 1998, 1992, 1982), Probability in Engineering & Information
Sciences (1988), Reliability Engineering & System Safety (2010, 2008, 2007, 2001), Statistics &
Probability Letters (1987), Scandinavian Journal of Statistics (1996), Statistical Modeling (2006),
Technometrics (2002, 2001,1994)
Reviewer: John Wiley & Sons (2008, 2004, 1996, 1994), National Science Foundation (2003,
2001, 1996, 1995,1988, 1987), National Security Agency (2010), Natural Sciences and
Engineering Research Council of Canada (2002, 2000), Chapman & Hall (1994, 1992), Springer
Verlag (2005, 2002, 1993), Zentralblatt fur Mathematik (1982 1994).
CONSULTING AND RESEARCH GRANTS
Consultant: Bose Corporation, October 2000-May 2001.
Consultant: Grand Manor Psychiatric Institute, January 1995-September 1999.
Consultant: Technology Development Foundation of Turkey, March 1995-May 1996.
Consultant: Ford Motor Company, North American Automotive Operations, June 1989-Sept.
1989.
Consultant: U. S. Army Natick Research, Development, and Engineering Center, July 31, 1986 -
December 31, 1986.
Consultant: American Association of Railroads, Summer 1982 and Summer 1983.
Co-Principal Investigator: National Science Foundation, September 1, 2009 August 31, 2011.
Principal Investigator: National Science Foundation, August 15, 1996 - July 31, 2000.
Principal Investigator: Dupont Educational Aid Grant, July 1, 1996 - July 1, 1998.
Principal Investigator: The George Washington University Facilitating Fund: July 1, 1989 -
August 31, 1989.
Principal Investigator: U. S. Army Natick Research, Development, and Engineering Center.
Contract DAAL03-86-D-0001. Funded by Battelle for Army Research Office: April 19, 1990 -
October 18, 1990.
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BOOKS AND EDITED VOLUMES
Co-editor, Mathematical Reliability: An Expository Perspective, (R. Soyer, T. A. Mazzuchi, and
N. D. Singpurwalla, Eds.), 2004, Kluwer.
PAPERS UNDER REVIEW FOR PUBLICATION
[4] Bayesian Analysis of Queues with Impatient Customers: Applications to Call Centers, (with
T. Aktekin), 2010, Naval Research Logistics, under review.
[3] Information in Survival and Failure about Parameter and Prediction, (with N. Ebrahimi and
E. S. Soofi), 2010, American Statistician, under review.
[2] Call Center Modeling: A Bayesian State Space Approach, (with T. Aktekin), 2010, Naval
Research Logistics, second revision submitted.
[1] Estimating the Population Utility Function: A Parametric Bayesian Approach, (with R.
Musal, C. McCabe and S. A. Kharroubi), 2010, European Journal of Operational Research,
invited for revision.
PUBLICATIONS
[96] Bayesian Modeling of Health State Preferences, (with R. Musal,), 2010, Mathematical and
Statistical Methods in Reliability, (N. Balakrishnan, M.S. Nikulin, and V. Rykov, Eds.),
forthcoming.
[95] Markov and Hidden Markov Models, 2010, Encyclopedia of ORMS, (J. J. Cochran, Ed.),
forthcoming.
[94] On the Sample Information about Parameter and Prediction, (with N. Ebrahimi and E. S.
Soofi), 2010, Statistical Science, forthcoming.
[93] Information Measures in Perspective, (with N. Ebrahimi and E. S. Soofi), 2010,
International Statistical Review, forthcoming.
[92] Computational Issues in Semiparametric Bayesian Replacement Models, (with J. Merrick),
2010, in Multivariate Statistical Modeling and High Dimensional Data Mining (Ed. H.
Bozdogan), forthcoming.
[91] Assessment of Mortgage Default Risk via Bayesian Reliability Models, (with F. Xu),
2010, Applied Stochastic Models for Business & Industry, Vol. 26, pp. 308-330.
[90] Modeling Latent Sources in Call Center Arrival Data, (with J. Landon, F. Ruggeri, and M.
Tarimcilar, 2010, European Journal of Operational Research, Vol. 204, pp. 597-603.
[89] Information Importance of Predictors: Concept, Measures, Bayes Inference and
Applications, (with J. J. Retzer and E. S. Soofi), 2009, Computational Statistics and Data
Analysis, Vol. 53, pp. 2363-2377.
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[88] Review of Bayesian Networks and Probabilistic Inference in Forensic Science by F.
Tarconi, C. Aitken, P. Garbolino and A. Biedermann, 2009, Technometrics, Vol. 51, pp. 99-100.
[87] "Multivariate Maximum Entropy Identification, Transformation and Dependence, (with N.
Ebrahimi and E. S. Soofi), 2008, Journal of Multivariate Analysis, Vol. 99, pp. 1217 1231.
[86] "Advances in Bayesian Software Reliability Modeling, with (F. Ruggeri), 2008, in
Advances in Mathematical Modeling for Reliability, (Eds. T. Bedford, J. Quigley, L. Walls, B.
Alkali, A. Daneshkhah and G. Hardman), pp. 165-176, IOS Press, Amsterdam, Netherlands.
[85] "Bayes Estimate and Inference for Entropy and Information Index of Fit", (with T. A.
Mazzuchi and E. Soofi), 2008, Econometric Reviews, Vol. 27, pp. 428-456.
[84] "Modeling and Analysis of Call Center Arrival Data: A Bayesian Approach", (with M.
Tarimcilar), 2008, Management Science, Vol. 54, pp. 266-278.
[83] "Accelerated Life Tests: Bayesian Models", (with A. Erkanli and J. R. Merrick), 2007, The
Encyclopedia of Statistics in Quality and Reliability (Eds. F. Ruggeri, R. S. Kenett and F. W.
Faltin), Vol. 1, pp. 20-30, John Wiley & Sons, UK.
[82] " Accelerated Life Tests: Bayesian Design ", 2007, The Encyclopedia of Statistics in Quality
and Reliability (Eds. F. Ruggeri, R. S. Kenett and F. W. Faltin), Vol. 1, pp. 12-20, John Wiley &
Sons, UK.
[81] "Bayesian Analysis of Nonhomogeneous Markov Chains: Applications to Mental Health
Data", (with M. Sung and N. Nhan), 2007, Statistics in Medicine, Vol. 26, pp: 3000-3017.
[80] "Information Measures for Generalized Gamma Family", (with A. Dadpay and E. S. Soofi),
2007, Journal of Econometrics, Vol. 138, pp. 568-585.
[79]"A Bayesian Approach to Signal Analysis of Pulse Trains", (with M. Hock), 2006, Bayesian
Monitoring, Control and Optimization, (B. M. Colosimo and E. del Castillo, Eds.), pp. 215-243.
[78] "Semi-Markov Modulated Poisson Process: Probabilistic and Statistical Analysis", (with S.
Ozekici), 2006, Mathematical Methods of Operations Research, Vol. 64, pp. 125-144.
[77] "Bayesian Portfolio Selection with Multivariate Random Variance Models" (with K.
Tanyeri), 2006, European Journal of Operational Research, Vol. 171, pp. 977-990.
[76] "Are Maintenance Practices for Railroad Tracks Effective ? " (with J. R. Merrick and T. A.
Mazzuchi), 2005, Journal of the American Statistical Association, Vol. 100, pp. 17-25.
[75] "Review of Bayesian Methods for Nonlinear Classification and Regression,by D. G. T.
Denison, C. C. Holmes, B. K. Mallick and A. F. M. Smith", 2004, Technometrics, Vol. 49, No. 2.
[74] "Reliability Modeling and Analysis under Random Environments", (with S. Ozekici), 2004,
in Mathematical Reliability: An Expository Perspective, (R. Soyer, T. A. Mazzuchi, and N. D.
Singpurwalla, Eds.), pp. 249-273.
[73] "Network Reliability Assessment in a Random Environment", (with S. Ozekici), 2003, Naval
Research Logistics, Vol. 50, pp. 574-591.
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[72] "Stochastic Process Models for Reliability in Dynamic Environments", (with T. A.
Mazzuchi, S. Ozekici and N. D. Singpurwalla), 2003, Handbook of Statistics: Statistics in
Industry, (C. R. Rao and R. Khattree, Eds.), Vol. 22, pp. 1109- 1129.
[71] "Reliability of Software with an Operational Profile", (with S. Ozekici), 2003, European
Journal of Operational Research, Vol. 149, pp. 459-474.
[70]"Bayesian Analysis of Markov Modulated Bernoulli Processes", (with S. Ozekici),2003,
Mathematical Methods of Operations Research, Vol. 57, pp. 125-140.
[69] "A Bayesian Semi-parametric Analysis of the Reliability and Maintenance of Machine Tools
(with J. R. Merrick and T. A. Mazzuchi), 2003, Technometrics, Vol. 48, pp. 58-69.
[68] "Optimal Stopping Rules for Software Testing", (with N. Morali), 2003, Naval Research
Logistics, Vol. 50, pp. 88-104.
[67]"Bayesian Testing Strategies for Software with an Operational Profile", (with S. Ozekici),
2001, Naval Research Logistics, Vol. 48, pp. 747-763.
[66] "Bayesian Analyses of Longitudinal Binary Data using Markov Regression Models of
Unknown Order (with A. Erkanli and A. Angold), 2001, Statistics in Medicine,Vol. 20, pp. 755-
770.
[65] "Bayesian Portfolio Selection in Random Variance Models", (with K. Tanyeri), 2001,
Bayesian Methods with Applications to Science, Policy and Official Statistics, (Edward George,
Ed.), pp. 527-535.
[64]"Bayesian Analysis of Nonhomogeneous Markov Chains", (with M. Sung), 2001, Bayesian
Methods with Applications to Science, Policy and Official Statistics, (Edward George, Ed.), pp.
517-526.
[63] "Dirichlet Distribution under Moment Constraints", (with T. A. Mazzuchi and E. S. Soofi),
2001, The Proceedings of 53rd Session of ISI, Book 2, pp. 137-140.
[62] "Simulation Based Designs for Accelerated Life Tests", (with A. Erkanli), 2000, Journal of
Statistical Planning and Inference, Vol. 90, 335-348.
[61] "Maximum Entropy Dirichlet Modeling of Consumer Choice", (with T. A. Mazzuchi, E.
Soofi and J. J. Retzer), Proceedings of the ASA Section on Bayesian Statistical Science, 2000,pp.
56-61.
[60] "Computation and Applications of Maximum Entropy Dirichlet Procedure", (with T. A.
Mazzuchi and E. S. Soofi), 2000, Computational Statistics and Data Analysis, Vol. 32, pp. 361-
378.
[59] "Bayesian Inference for Prevalence in Longitudinal Two-Phase Studies", (with A. Erkanli
and E. J. Costello), Biometrics, 1999, Vol. 55, pp. 1145-1150.
[58] "Mapping Uncertainty of Logit Models", (with T. A. Mazzuchi and E. S. Soofi), The
Proceedings of 52nd Session of ISI,1999, Book 2, pp. 139-142.
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[57] "Optimal Design for Quantal Bioassay via Monte Carlo Methods", (with L. Kuo and F.
Wang), Bayesian Statistics 6, (J. O. Berger, J. M. Bernardo, A. P. Dawid and A. F. M. Smith,
Eds.), 1999, pp. 795-802.
[56]"Information Concepts and Pairwise Comparison Matrices", (with P. P. Sanchez),
Information Processing Letters, 1998, Vol. 68, pp. 185-188.
[55] "Bayesian Reliability Modeling and Inference under Ordering Restrictions", (with T. A.
Mazzuchi), Frontiers in Reliability Analysis, (A. P. Basu, S. K. Basu and S. ukhopadhyay,Eds.),
1998, pp. 217-230.
[54] "Bayesian Computations for a Class of Reliability Growth Models", (with A. Erkanli and T.
A. Mazzuchi), Technometrics, 1998, Vol. 40, pp. 14-23.
[53] "Optimal Bayesian Two-Phase Designs for Prevalence Estimation", (with A. Erkanli and A.
Angold), Journal of Statistical Planning and Inference, 1998, Vol. 66, pp. 175-191.
[52] "Bayesian Learning in Project Management Networks", (with Z. Covaliu), Proceedings of
the ASA Section on Bayesian Statistical Science, 1997,pp. 257- 260.
[51] "Computation and Applications of Maximum Entropy Dirichlet Procedure", (with T. A.
Mazzuchi and E. S. Soofi), Computing Science and Statistics, (E. J. Wegman and S. P. Azen,
Eds.), 1997, Vol. 29, pp. 373-382.
[50]"Sequential Inference and Decision Making for Single Mission Systems Development (with
J. R. van Dorp and T. A. Mazzuchi), Journal of Statistical Planning and Inference, 1997, Vol.
62, pp. 207-218.
[49]"Optimal Stopping Rules for Software Testing", (with N. Morali), The Proceedings of 51th
Session of ISI, 1997, Book 2, pp. 259-260.
[48] "Hierarchical Bayesian Analysis for Prevalance Estimation", (with A. Erkanli and D.
Stangl), Case Studies in Bayesian Statistics, Volume 3, (C. Gatsonis, J. Hodges, R. Kass and
N.D. Singpurwalla,Eds.), 1997, pp. 325-346.
[47]"Linear Bayesian Inference for Accelerated Weibull Model", (with T. A. Mazzuchi and A.
L.Vopatek), LifeTime Data Analysis, 1997, Vol. 3, pp. 63-75.
[46]"Bayesian Inference in Two-Phase Prevalence Studies", (with A. Erkanli and D. Stangl),
1997, Statistics in Medicine, Vol. 16, pp. 1121-1133.
[45] "Bayesian Project Management", (with Z. Covaliu), Proceedings of the ASA Section on
Bayesian Statistical Science, 1996, pp. 208-213.
[44] "Analysis of Software Failure Data", Reliability and Maintenance of Complex Systems, (S.
Ozekici, Ed.), 1996, Springer Verlag, pp. 345-367.
[43] "Assessing the Reliability of Software: An Overview", (with N. D. Singpurwalla),
Reliability and Maintenance of Complex Systems, (S. Ozekici, Ed.), 1996, Springer Verlag, pp.
389-408.
8
[42] "A Bayesian Perspective on some Replacement Strategies", (with T. A. Mazzuchi),
Reliability Engineering and System Safety, 1996, Vol. 51, pp. 295-303.
[41] "Adaptive Bayesian Replacement Strategies", (with T. A. Mazzuchi), Bayesian Statistics 5,
(J. O. Berger, J. M. Bernardo, A. P. Dawid and A. F. M. Smith, Eds.), 1996, pp. 667-674.
[40]"The Analytic Hierarchy Process Applied to Business and Other Applications", (with E.
Forman), Advances in Social Science and Computers, (S. S. Nagel and G. D. Garson, Eds.),
1996, Vol. 4, pp. 235-266.
[39] "Optimal Bayesian Two-Phase Designs for Screening Tests", (with A. Erkanli), Proceedings
of the ASA Section on Bayesian Statistical Science, 1995, pp.101-104.
[38]"Adaptive Bayesian Designs for Accelerated Life Testing", (with A. L. Vopatek), Adaptive
Designs, (N. Flournoy and W. F. Rosenberger, Eds.), Institute of Mathematical Statistics, Lecture
Notes, Vol. 25, 1995, pp. 263-275.
[37]"Review of Ensuring Software Reliability by A. M. Neufelder", Technometrics, Vol. 37,
1995, pp. 122-123.
[36]"Information Technologies in Decision Making", (with E. H. Forman), Advances in
Telematics, Vol. 3, 1995, pp. 81-120.
[35] "Lifetime Modeling via Bayesian Information Distinguishability", (with T. A. Mazzuchi and
E. S. Soofi), Proceedings of the ASA Section on Bayesian Statistical Science, 1994, pp. 238-245.
[34]"Information Concepts and AHP", (with P. P. Sanchez), The Proceedings of the Third
International Symposium on Analytic Hierarchy Process, 1994, pp. 67-73.
[33]"A Bayes Method for Assessing Product-Reliability During Development Testing", (with T.
A. Mazzuchi), IEEE Transactions on Reliability, Vol. 42, 1993, pp. 503-510.
[32]"A Bayesian Perspective on Quality Assurance", (with T. A. Mazzuchi, N. D. Singpurwalla
and T. Z. Irony), he Proceedings of 49th Session of ISI, 1993, Book 3, pp. 207-215.
[31]"Bayesian Estimation of Entropy", (with T. A. Mazzuchi and E. S. Soofi), Proceedings of the
ASA Section on Bayesian Statistical Science, 1993, pp. 12-17.
[30]"Information Diagnostics for Bayesian Reliability Modeling", (with T. A. Mazzuchi and E. S.
Soofi), Proceedings of the ASA Section on Bayesian Statistical Science, 1993, pp. 173-178.
[29]"Determination of Stopping Criteria During Development", (with T. A. Mazzuchi), Advances
in Reliability, (A. P. Basu, Ed.), 1993, North Holland, pp. 269-280.
[28]"Nonhomogeneous Autoregressive Processes for Tracking Reliability Growth, and their
Bayesian Analysis", (with N. D. Singpurwalla), Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, Series B,
Vol. 54, 1992, pp. 145-156.
[27] "A Dynamic General Linear Model for Inference from Accelerated Life Tests", (with T. A.
Mazzuchi), Naval Research Logistics Quarterly, Vol. 39, No. 6, 1992, pp. 757-773.
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[26]"Bayesian Perspectives on Attribute Reliability Growth Modeling", (with T. A. Mazzuchi),
Institute of Environmental Sciences Proceedings, Vol. 2, 1992, pp. 422-426.
[25]"Reliability Assessment and Prediction during Product Development, (with T. A. Mazzuchi),
Proceedings of Annual Reliability and Maintainability Symposium, 1992, pp. 468-474.
[24]"Monitoring Software Reliability Using NonGaussian Dynamic Models", Proceedings of the
Engineering Systems Design and Analysis Conference, Vol. 1, 1992, pp. 419-423.
[23]"Modeling Machine Tool Reliability: A Bayesian Approach", (with T. A. Mazzuchi)
Proceedings of the Engineering Systems Design and Analysis Conference, Vol. 1, 1992, pp. 413-
418.
[22]"Evaluation of Soldier Integrated Protective Ensembles Using Analytic Hierarchy Process",
(with R. V. Spring), The Proceedings of the Second International Symposium on the Analytic
Hierarchy Process, 1991, pp. 415-427.
[21]"A Stopping Rule for Software Testing, (with N. D. Singpurwalla), The Proceedings of the
48th Session of ISI, Book 2, 1991, pp. 624-625.
[20]"Assessing (Software) Reliability Growth Using a Random Coefficient Autoregressive
Process and Its Ramifications", (with N. D. Singpurwalla), Software Reliability Models:
Theoretical Developments, Evaluation & Applications, (Y. K. Malaiya and P. K. Srimani, Eds.),
1991, pp. 78-86.
[19]"A Bayesian Attribute Reliability Growth Model", (with T. A. Mazzuchi). Proceedings of
Annual Reliability and Maintainability Symposium, 1991, pp. 322-25.
[18]"Reliability Engineering", (with T. A. Mazzuchi), The Automated Factory Handbook:
Tecnology and Management, (D. I. Cleland and B. Bidanda, Eds.), 1990, pp. 633-651.
[17]"Dynamic Models for Inference from Accelerated Life Tests", (with T. A. Mazzuchi),
Proceedings of Annual Reliability and Maintainability Symposium, 1990, pp. 67-70.
[16] "Bayesian Proportional Hazards Analysis" (with T. A. Mazzuchi and R. Spring), American
Statistical Association Proceedings of the Computing Section, 1989, pp. 253-258.
[15]"Assessment of Machine Tool Reliability Using a Proportional Hazards Model", (with T. A.
Mazzuchi), Naval Research Logistics Quarterly, 1989, Vol. 36, pp. 765-777.
[14]"Applications of the Analytic Hierarchy Process", (with E. Forman), Proceedings of the
International Conference on Multiple Criteria Decision Making, (V. Chankong and M. T.
Tabucanon, Eds.), 1989, pp. 833-847.
[13]"Dynamic Models for Software Reliability Assessment", Proceedings of TENCON IEEE
International Conference, 1989, pp. 400-403.
[12]"Using Expert Opinion in Reliability Assessment", (with K. Aboura and N. D. Singpurwalla),
Reliability Review, 1989, Vol. 9, pp. 11-12.
10
[11]"Intelligent Systems for Reliability", (with K. Aboura and N. D. Singpurwalla), Proceedings
of the 3rd IEEE International Symposium on Intelligent Control, (H. E. Stephanou, Ed.), 1989,
pp. 103-107.
[10]"Software for Use of Expert Opinion in Reliability", (with K. Aboura and N. D.
Singpurwalla), ASQC Quality Congress Transactions, 1989, pp. 527-532.
[9]"The Proportional Hazards Model in Reliability" (with T. A. Mazzuchi and R. Spring),
Proceedings of Annual Reliability and Maintainability Symposium, 1989, pp. 252-256.
[8]"A Bayes Empirical Bayes Model for Software Reliability", (with T. A. Mazzuchi), IEEE
Transactions on Reliability, Vol. 37, 1988, pp. 248-254.
[7]"The Use of Expert Opinion in Reliability: A Survey" (with N. D. Singpurwalla), Accelerated
Life Testing and Experts' Opinion in Reliability, (C. A. Clariotti and D. V. Lindley, Eds.), 1988,
pp. 105-115, North Holland.
[6]"Application of Posterior Approximation Techniques for the Ordered Dirichlet Distribution",
(with T. A. Mazzuchi), Computer Science and Statistics: Proceedings of the 20th Symposium on
the Interface, (E.Wegman, D. Gantz and J.Miller, Eds.), 1988, pp. 511-515.
[5]"Software Reliability Assessment Using Posterior Approximations", (with T. A. Mazzuchi),
Computer Science and Statistics: Proceedings of the 19th Symposium on the Interface, (R. M.
Heiberger, Ed.), 1987, pp. 400-405.
[4]"Applications of Time Series Models to Software Reliability Analysis", State of the Art Report
on Software Reliability, (A. Bendell and P. Mellor, Eds.), 1986, pp. 197-207.
[3]"Assessing (Software) Reliability Growth Using a Random Coefficient Autoregressive Process
and its Ramifications", (with N. D. Singpurwalla), IEEE Transactions on Software Engineering,
Vol. SE-11, 1985, pp. 1456-1464.
[2]"A Bayes Empirical Bayes Approach for (Software) Reliability Growth", (with M. Horigome
and N. D. Singpurwalla), Computer Science and Statistics: Proceedings of the 16th Symposium
on the Interface, (L. Billard, Ed.), 1984, pp. 47-56.
[1]"The Design of a Quantal Response Experiment: An Empirical Approach", Proceedings of the
29th Conference on the Design of Experiments in Army Research Development and Testing,
1983, pp. 55-96.
RECENT PRESENTATIONS: (2003 - Present)
2010 Nonparametric Bayesian Replacement Strategies, 30th National Congress on Operations
Research and Industrial Engineering (YAEM 2010), Sabanci University, Istanbul, Turkey, June
30-July 2.
2010 Bayesian ROC Curves and Sensor Evaluation, DTRA/NSF Algorithm Workshop, Chapel
Hill, NC, June 24.
11
2010 Bayesian State Space Modeling of Mortgage Default Risk, (with T. Aktekin and F. Xu ),
Ninth Valencia International Meeting on Bayesian Statistics, Benidorm (Alicante, Spain),
June 3-8.
2010 Bayesian Analysis of Markov Modulated Discrete Time Queues, (with T. Caglar), Ninth
Valencia International Meeting on Bayesian Statistics, Benidorm (Alicante, Spain), June 3-8.
2010 Modeling Health Preferences, (with R. M. Musal), Yeditepe University, Istanbul, Turkey,
March 17.
2009 Bayesian Computations in Call Center Arrival Modeling, (with T. Aktekin), INFORMS
Annual Meeting, San Diego, CA, October 11-14.
2009 Computations in Bayesian Design of Life Tests, (with N. Polson), Complex Data
Modeling and Computationally Intensive Statistical Methods for Estimation and Prediction,
Milano, Italy, September 14-16.
2009 Bayesian Analysis of Dynamic Probit Models, (with M. Sung), ASA/IMS Joint Statistical
Meetings, Washington, DC, August 1-6.
2009 Bayesian Modeling of Health State Preferences, (with M. Musal), Mathematical Methods
in Reliability, Moscow, Russia, June 22-27.
2009 Bayesian Queuing Models for Call Centers, (with T. Aktekin), Sixth Workshop on
Bayesian Inference in Stochastic Processes, Bressanone/Brixen, Italy, June 18-20.
2009 Particle-based Accelerated Life Test Designs, (with N. Polson), Games and Decisions in
Reliability and Risk, Washington, DC, May 27-28.
2009 Assessment of Mortgage Default Risk via Bayesian Duration Models, (with F. Xu),
Department of Computational and Data Sciences, George Mason University, May 1.
2009 Information Importance of Predictors, (with J. J. Retzer and E. S. Soofi), Department of
Mathematics, University of Maryland, February 19.
2008 Bayesian Mortgage Default Models and Reliability Analysis, (with F. Xu), INFORMS
Annual Meeting, Washington, DC, October 12-15.
2008 Semiparametric Bayesian Replacement Strategies, (with J. Merrick), INFORMS Annual
Meeting, Washington, DC, October 12-15.
2008 A Markov Modulated Poisson Model for Software Reliability, (with J. Landon and S.
Ozekici), INFORMS Annual Meeting, Washington, DC, October 12-15.
2008 Call Center Modeling: A Bayesian State Space Approach, (with T. Aktekin), INFORMS
Annual Meeting, Washington, DC, October 12-15.
2008 Bayesian Reliability Models and Mortgage Default Risk, (with F. Xu), International
Society for Business and Industrial Statistics Meeting, Prague, Czech Republic, July 1-4.
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2008 Computational Issues in Semiparametric Bayesian Replacement Models, (with J.
Merrick), International Conference on Multivariate Statistical Modeling and High Dimensional
Data Mining, Kayseri, Turkey, June 19-22.
2008 Modeling Latent Sources in Call Center Arrival Data, (with J. Landon, F. Ruggeri, and
M. Tarimcilar), EURO Working Group on Stochastic Modeling, Istanbul, Turkey, June 23-
25,
2008 Bayesian Mortgage Default Models, (with F. Xu), IMST-2008, Memphis, TN, May 15-
18.
2008 Semiparametric Bayesian Decision Models for Optimal Replacement, (with J. Merrick),
CNR-IMATI, Milano, Italy, January 8.
2007 Computational Issues in the Analysis of Call Center Arrivals, (with F. Ruggeri and M.
Tarimcilar), INFORMS Annual Meeting, Seattle, WA, November 4-7.
2007 Semiparametric Bayesian Decision Models, (with J. Merrick), INFORMS Annual
Meeting, Seattle, WA, November 4-7.
2007 Modeling and Analysis of Call Center Arrival Data: A Bayesian Approach, (with M.
Tarimcilar), Seminar in Bayesian Inference in Stochastic Processes, Val ncia, Spain, June 14-16.
2007 Modeling and Analysis of Call Center Arrival Data: A Bayesian Perspective, Izzet Sahin
Memorial Lecture, March 28, 2007, Sheldon B. Lubar School of Business, University of
Wisconsin at Milwaukee.
2006 "Bayesian Modeling of Call Center Arrivals", (with M. Tarimcilar), INFORMS Annual
Meeting, Pittsburgh, PA, November 5-8.
2006 "A Computational Approach for Bayesian Portfolio Selection", (with K. Tanyeri),
ASA/IMS Joint Statistical Meetings, Seattle, WA, August 6 - 10.
2006 "Maximum Entropy Data Camouflaging", (with K. Pflughoeft and E. S. Soofi), ASA/IMS
Joint Statistical Meetings, Seattle, WA, August 6 - 10.
2005 "Bayesian Methods for Decision Sciences, Decision Sciences Institute Conference, San
Francisco, CA, November 19-22.
2005 "Modeling and Analysis of Call Center Arrival Data: A Bayesian Approach", (with M.
Tarimcilar), Decision Sciences Institute Conference, San Francisco, CA, November 19-22.
2005 "Bayes Estimate and Inference for Entropy and Information Index of Fit", (with T. A.
Mazzuchi and E. S. Soofi), IEE 2005, Second IEE Conference, Washington, DC, September 23-
25.
2005 "A Hidden Markov Model for Pulse Trains", YAEM 2005, Annual Meeting of Turkish OR
Society, Istanbul, Turkey, July 4-6.
2005 "Assessment of Maintenance Practices for Railroad Tracks", ICSA Applied Statistical
Symposium, Washington, DC, June 12-15.
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2004 "Bayesian Software Release Strategies", (with L. Kuo), ASA/IMS Joint Statistical
Meetings, Toronto, Canada, August 8-12.
2003 "Optimal Bayesian Software Release Strategies using Monte Carlo Methods", (with L.
Kuo), EUROINFORMS Joint International Meeting, Istanbul, Turkey, July 6-10.
2003 "Bayesian Portfolio Selection in Random Variance Models", (with K. Tanyeri),
EUROINFORMS Joint International Meeting, Istanbul, Turkey, July 6-10. 2003.
"Bayesian Analysis of Markov Modulated Bernoulli Processes", (with S. Ozekici),
EUROINFORMS Joint International Meeting, Istanbul, Turkey, July 6-10.
2003 "Network Reliability Assessment in a Random Environment", International Conference on
Reliability and Survival Analysis (ICRSA), Columbia, SC, May 21-24.
2003 "The Bayesian Perspective in Reliability Analysis", Third Statistics Conference Turkish
Statistical Association, Antalya, Turkey, April 16-19.
2003 "Bayesian Semiparametric Methods for Reliability Assessment and Maintenance: A Case
Study in Railroad Industry", Third Statistics Conference Turkish Statistical Association, Antalya,
Turkey, April 16-19.
DIRECTED DOCTORAL DISSERTATIONS:
[10] Director of Dissertation of Tevfik Aktekin (Department of Decision Sciences, SB),
Three Essays in Call Center Modeling: A Bayesian Perspective, completed, May, 2009.
[9] Director of Dissertation of Feng Xu (Department of Decision Sciences, SB),
Bayesian Mortgage Default Models, completed, June, 2008.
[8] Director of Dissertation of R. Muzaffer Musal (Department of Decision Sciences, SB),
Bayesian Modeling of Group Preferences and Population Utility Estimation, completed,
January, 2007.
[7] Co-Director of Dissertation of Kemal Cakicilar (Department of Decision Sciences, SB),
Assessment of Technology Acceptance in Web Portals: A Bayesian Framework, completed,
December, 2006.
[6] Director of Dissertation of Kadir Tanyeri (Department of Operations Research,SEAS),
"Bayesian Portfolio Selection with Volatility Models", completed April 2004.
[5] Director of Dissertation of Melinda Hock (Department of Operations Research, SEAS),
"Bayesian Analysis of Pulse Trains with Hidden Missingness", completed October 2001.
[4] Director of Dissertation of Minje Sung (Department of Management Science, SBPM),
"Bayesian Analyses of Markov Chains: Applications to Longitudinal Data from Psychiatric
Treatment Programs", completed May 2001.
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[3] Director of Dissertation of Eugene D. Hahn (Department of Management Science, SBPM),
"Bayesian Multivariate Binary Response Models and their Application to Multiple-Response
Data", completed March 2001.
[2] Director of Dissertation of Jason R. Merrick (Department of Operations Research, SEAS),
"Bayesian Analysis using Covariate Information: A Case Study in Reliability", completed
December 1997.
[1] Director of Dissertation of Anne L. Hillegas (Department of Operations Research, SEAS),
"Design of Accelerated Life Tests: A Bayesian Approach", completed May 1992.
LIST OF COURSES TAUGHT:
Time Series Analysis and Forecasting Techniques I (OR 271) - Graduate
Time Series Analysis and Forecasting Techniques II (OR 371)- Doctoral
Probability and Statistics for Engineers (APSC 115)- Undergraduate
Mathematical Statistics for Engineers (APSC 116)- Undergraduate.
Acceptance Sampling and Quality Control (OR 282)- Graduate
Operations Management (MGT 218/MBad 231)- Graduate
Statistics for Managers (MGT 270/MBad 220)- Gradute
Executive Decision Making (MGT/DNSC 224)- Graduate
Analytical Models for Decision Making DNSC 220- Graduate
Applied Forecasting and Time Series Analysis (DNSC 277)- Graduate
Statistical Modeling and Analysis (MGT 225/DNSC 274) - Graduate
Forecasting Models for Decision Support (EMBA 268)- Graduate
Financial Modeling and Econometrics (FINA 271)- Graduate
Advanced Statistical Modeling and Analysis (MGT/DNSC 275)- Graduate
Special Topics in Management Decision Making (MGT/DNSC 229)- Graduate
Seminar: Introduction to Bayesian Statistics (DNSC 328) - Doctoral
Advanced Topics in Forecasting and Time Series Analysis (DNSC 397) - Doctoral
Applied Stochastic Models for Business (DNSC 397) - Doctoral
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