Assistant University

Matthew J. Lebo _

Associate Professor Department of Political Science Stony Brook University

S719 SBS Stony Brook, NY 11794-4392 631-***-**** *******.****@**********.***

Website: http://ms.cc.sunysb.edu/~mlebo/

Last Updated June 16, 2012

EDUCATION

Post-Doctoral Fellowship, Harvard University 2000-2001

PH.D. Political Science, University of North Texas 1999

Fields of Specialization: Quantitative Research Methods

American Politics

Comparative Politics

M.A. Political Science, University of Toronto 1995

B.A. Political Science and Economics, University of Toronto 1994

FACULTY POSITIONS

Acting Chair, Department of Political Science, SBU, 2011-12

Academic Visitor, Nuffield College, Oxford University, Spring 2010

Associate Professor, SBU, 2008-

Graduate Studies Director, Department of Political Science, SBU 2008-11, 2012-

Assistant Professor, Stony Brook University, 2002-2008

Visiting Assistant Professor, Dartmouth College, 2001-2002

Visiting Assistant Professor, Washington State University, 1999-2000

RESEARCH AND TEACHING INTERESTS

Voting Behavior, Public Opinion, and Elections in the United States and Great Britain

Political Methodology and Time Series Methods

Congressional Parties

PUBLICATIONS

Gregory Koger and Matthew Lebo. 2012. Strategic Party Government and the 2010 Elections.

American Politics Research 40(2).

Matthew Lebo and Helmut Norpoth. 2011. Yes, Prime Minister: The Key to Forecasting British

Elections. Electoral Studies 30(2).

Matthew Lebo and Andrew O Geen. 2011. The President s Role in the Partisan Congressional

Arena. Journal of Politics 73(3).

Jamie Carson, Gregory Koger, Matthew Lebo, and Everett Young. 2010. The Electoral

Consequences of Party Loyalty in Congress. American Journal of Political Science 54:3.

Everett Young and Matthew Lebo. 2009. Long Memory Methods and Structural Breaks in Public

Opinion Time Series: A Reply to Pickup. Journal of Elections, Public Opinion and Parties 19:1.

Matthew Lebo and Everett Young. 2009. The Comparative Dynamics of Party Support in Great

Britain. Journal of Elections, Public Opinion and Parties 19:1. Ranked #3 on JEPOP s list of most

downloaded papers of 2010.

Matthew Lebo and Janet Box-Steffensmeier. 2008. Dynamic Conditional Correlations in Political

Science. American Journal of Political Science 52:3.

Andrew Sidman, Maxwell Mak, and Matthew Lebo. 2008. Forecasting Non-Incumbent Presidential

Elections: Lessons Learned from the 2000 Election. International Journal of Forecasting 24:2.

Matthew Lebo. 2008. Divided Government, United Approval: Long Memory and the Dynamics of

Congressional and Presidential Approval. Congress and the Presidency 35(2).

Matthew Lebo and Daniel Cassino. 2007. The Aggregated Consequences of Motivated Reasoning.

Political Psychology 28:6.

Matthew Lebo, Adam McGlynn and Greg Koger. 2007. Strategic Party Government Party Influence

in Congress, 1789-2001. American Journal of Political Science 51:3.

Matthew Dickinson and Matthew Lebo. 2007. Reexamining the Growth of the Institutional

Presidency, 1940-2000. Journal of Politics 69:1.

Matthew Lebo and Helmut Norpoth. 2006. The PM and the Pendulum: Dynamic Forecasting of

British Elections. British Journal of Political Science 37:1.

Richard Eichenberg, Richard Stoll, and Matthew Lebo. 2006. War President: The Approval Ratings

of George W. Bush. Journal of Conflict Resolution 50:6.

Sean Carey and Matthew Lebo. 2006. Election Cycles and the Economic Voter. Political Research

Quarterly 59:4.

Ben Bishin, Robert Barr and Matthew Lebo. 2006. The Impact of Economic vs. Institutional Factors

in Elite Evaluations of Presidential Progress Toward Democracy in Latin America. Comparative

Political Studies 39:10.

Matthew Lebo and Will Moore. 2003. Dynamic Foreign Policy Behavior. Journal of Conflict

Resolution 47:1.

Harold D. Clarke and Matthew Lebo. 2003. Fractional (Co)integration and Governing Party Support

in Britain. British Journal of Political Science 33:2.

Matthew Lebo and Harold D. Clarke. 2000. Modelling Memory and Volatility: Recent Advances in the

Analysis of Political Time Series. Electoral Studies 19:1.

Matthew Lebo, Robert Walker, and Harold D. Clarke. 2000. You Must Remember This: Dealing with

Long Memory in Political Analyses. Electoral Studies 19:1.

Guest Editor, special issue of Electoral Studies 19:1, 2000, Recent Advances in the Analyses of

Political Time Series.

OTHER PUBLICATIONS

Jamie Carson, Gregory Koger, Matthew Lebo, and Everett Young. 2010. The Electoral

Consequences of Party Loyalty in Congress. Reprinted for AJPS Special Online Issue on 2010

Elections. AJPS editor s report lists it as the most downloaded article in the issue (1,061 downloads

as of end of 2010).

Matthew Lebo. 2010. Got a Coin Handy? Column for PoliticalBetting.com on the 2010 UK Election.

Available here: http://www1.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2010/03/25/got-a-coin-handy/

Matthew Lebo. 2009. Book Review of: Party Influence in Congress by Steven S. Smith.

Perspectives on Politics 7(2).

RESEARCH GRANTS

TESS Funding 2011. Voter Response to Congressional and Presidential Success. Survey of 900

online subjects, with Kathleen Donovan and Andrew O Geen. Approximate value $25,000.

The National Annenberg Election Study. 2007-2008. Online Automated Text Analysis Using LYDIA.

With Steve Skiena and Leonie Huddy. $130,000.

The Dirksen Center Congressional Research Award. W ith Greg Koger. 2006. Strategic Party

Government. $3200.

WORKING PROJECTS

Book Project Strategic Party Government. With Greg Koger. W hy is Congress partisan and

stalemated? The conventional answer is that members of Congress represent constituencies that are

increasingly polarized from each other. Republicans represent very conservative states or districts

and Democrats represent very liberal districts, and as they diverge it becomes increasingly difficult for

legislators to agree upon a middle ground. This book provides a different explanation. We view

Congressional parties as fundamentally diverse, so that even in our polarized era there will be great

disagreement within each party on major policy questions. Legislators unite into parties, however, to

win elections. Competition for electoral gain is the driving force behind the partisanship we observe.

In our view, the prevailing view is not completely wrong, but it neglects two critical features of the

Congressional game: two parties competing against each other for electoral gain. In order to avoid

losing legislative battles, legislators may unite behind strong party leaders even when they have

diverse policy views. They do so in the belief that party activists and voters will reward them for

winning these contests, or at least trying to win.

The PM and the Pendulum Model Revisited. With Helmut Norpoth. Revised and Resubmitted at

JEPOP.

A Solution to the Rolling Cross Sectional Design. With Chris Weber. We combine multilevel modeling

techniques with ARFIMA time series models to all the simultaneous estimation of individual- and

aggregate-level effects while also controlling for autocorrelation problems. Under review at AJPS.

Dynamic Error Correction. Engle s dynamic conditional correlation model is applied to the process of

error correction. Examples are given using presidential approval in economic and foreign affairs.The

The Impact of Electoral Competitiveness and Partisan Control on Net State Benefits from Federal

Spending with Marshall Madoff and Christopher Dennis. Under review.

Linked Fates: the Race Gap in Presidential Approval. W ith Yamil Velez, Ellen Key, Chris Weber,

and Heather Ondercin.

Presidential Liberalism Reconsidered. W ith Josh Johnson.

The Electoral Effects of Presidential Loyalty. W ith Taylor Grant, Gregory Koger, Kathleen Donovan,

and Andrew O Geen.

Studying Partisan Effects on Economic Evaluations using the BES-CMS. With Sean Carey.

Repeated Cross-Sectional Designs with a Dichotomous Dependent Variable. With Chris Weber, Will

Jennings, and Jane Green.

DEPARTMENT AND UNIVERSITY SERVICE STONY BROOK

Acting Chair 2011-12

Graduate Studies Director 2008-2011, 2012-

Member of Graduate Committee 2004-present

Member of Methodology Qualifying Exam Committee 2003-2012

Chair of Methodology Qualifying Exam Committee 2007, 2012

Member of American Politics Qualifying Exam Committee 2003-2012

Member of 31 Dissertation Committees

Member of CAS Dean s Cluster Proposal Evaluation Committee 2012

Senator-at-large University Senate 2005-2011

Senator Arts and Sciences Senate 2005-2011

Member of Lee Koppelman Scholarship Committee 2003-2007

Supervisor of 2 MA Theses.

PHD STUDENTS SUPERVISED

Ellen Key, Assistant Professor, Appalachian State University

Roland Kappe, Assistant Professor, University College of London

DISCIPLINE SERVICE

Editorial Board, Electoral Studies, 2007-.

Gosnell Committee Best Conference Paper in Political Methodology 2007-08 (committee member),

2008-09 (committee member), 2009-2010 (chair).

Best Poster Award Committee 2006, Society for Political Methodology Annual Meeting.

MPSA 2011, 2012 Graduate Student Travel Awards Committee

APSA Section Chair Political Methodology 2013

REVIEWS

Journal reviews:

American Journal of Political Science; American Political Science Review; American

Political Research; American Review of Politics; British Journal of Political Science; Comparative

Political Studies; Electoral Studies; European Journal of Political Research; European Union Politics;

The International Journal of Forecasting; International Journal of Public Opinion Research;

International Studies Quarterly; Journal of Applied Statistics; Journal of Politics; Journal of Elections,

Public Opinion and Parties; Perspectives on Politics; Political Analysis; Political Behavior; Political

Psychology; Political Research Quarterly; Political Studies; Politics and Economics; Polity; Public

Choice; Public Opinion Quarterly; Social Science History; The Sociological Quarterly; and the

University of Toronto Law Journal.

Other reviews:

Oxford University Press, University of Toronto Press, National Science Foundation.

TEACHING EXPERIENCE

ASSISTANT PROFESSOR, STONY BROOK UNIVERSITY 2002-2008

ASSOCIATE PROFESSOR, STONY BROOK UNIVERSITY 2008-

POL 600 Research Methods and Design (Ph.D.)

Fall 2007, Spring 2008

POL 602 Introductory Statistics and Probability Theory (Ph.D.)

Fall 2004, Fall 2005, Fall 2006, Fall 2007, Fall 2008,

POL 605 Foundations of American Politics (Ph.D.)

Spring 2009, Fall 2009, Spring 2011, Sping 2012

POL 606 Time Series Methods (Ph.D.)

Spring 2004, Spring 2006, Spring 2008, Fall 2009, Fall 2011

POL 616 Political Parties and Interest Groups (Ph.D.)

Spring 2003, Spring 2005, Spring 2007, Spring 2009, Spring 2011

POL 502 Intermediate Statistics for Public Policy (M.A.)

Spring 2003, Spring 2004, Spring 2005

POL 501 Introductory Statistics for Public Policy (M.A.)

Fall 2003, Fall 2004, Fall 2006, Spring 2007, Fall 2010

POL 462 Congress by Comparison (Undergraduate)

Fall 2002

VISITING ASSISTANT PROFESSOR, DARTMOUTH COLLEGE 2001-2002

Spring, 2002: GOV 10:Research Methods

Spring 2002: GOV 34: Congress by Comparison

Winter, 2002: GOV 10: Research Methods

Winter, 2002: GOV 37: Congress and the Presidency

Fall, 2001: GOV 10: Research Methods

VISITING ASSISTANT PROFESSOR, W ASHINGTON STATE UNIVERSITY 1999-2000

Spring, 2000: POLS 101 American National Government

Spring, 2000: POLS 314 The Politics of the (European Union

Spring, 2000: POLS 503 Graduate Seminar in Quantitative Research Methods

Fall, 1999: POLS 101 American National Government

Fall, 1999: POLS 432 Public Policy

Fall, 1999: POLS 472 Politics of Postindustrialized Nations

TEACHING FELLOW, UNIVERSITY OF NORTH TEXAS 1997-1998

Summer I, 1998: PSCI 1040 American Government

Summer II, 1998: PSCI 1040 American Government

Fall, 1997: PSCI 1040 American Government

Spring, 1997: PSCI 1040 American Government

PAPER PRESENTATIONS

A Solution to the Rolling Cross Sectional Design. With Chris Weber. Presented at Society for

Political Methodology 2011.

Strategic Behavior of Parties in Roll-Calls.: With Gregory Koger. Presented at the MPSA 2010.

Forecasting the 2010 British General Election. With Helmut Norpoth. Presented at the Internaitonal

Symposium on Methods and Models for Election Forecasting: the UK General Election of 2010.

University of Manchester, March 2010. Also presented at 2010 MPSA.

Theoretical Development of Strategic Party Government. With Gregory Koger. Presented at the

2010 SPSA.

Immigration and Government Support in Great Britain. With Lauren McLaren. Presented at the 2009

APSA.

Elite Influence, Media Coverage, and Public Opinion on the Iraq War. With Leonie Huddy and Chris

Johnston. Presented at the Midwest Political Science Association annual meeting, 2009.

The Legislative Success of the President, 1953-2006. With Andrew O Geen. Presented at the

Midwest Political Science Association annual meeting, 2009.

Statics and Dynamics: Methods to Analyze Rolling Cross Section Data. With Christopher Weber

and Brandon Bartels. Presented at the Southern Political Science Association annual meeting.

The Microfoundations of Congressional Voting. With Greg Koger and Everett Young. Presented at

the American Political Science Association annual meeting, 2008.

Party Unity and Roll Call Voting in Congress. With Greg Koger. Presented at the Midwest Political

Science Association April, 2008.

Strategic Party Leadership. With Greg Koger. Presented at the Midwest Political Science

Association April, 2007.

Dynamic Error Correction. With Greg Koger. Presented at the American Political Science

Association annual meeting, 2006.

The Dynamics of Second and Third Party Support in Great Britain. Presented at the American

Political Science Association annual meeting, 2006.

The Electoral Consequences of Party Unity. With Jamie Carson and Gregory Koger. Pre sented at

Midwest Political Science Association April, 2006.

Dynamic Conditional Correlations and Political Science. With Janet Box-Steffensmeier. Presented

at Midwest Political Science Association April, 2006.

Strategic Party Government. With Adam McGlynn and Greg Koger. Presented at the Canadian

Political Science Association Annual Meeting. June, 2005. Also presented at APSA, 2005.

Partisan Presidential Approval. With Daniel Cassino. Presented at Midwest Political Science

Association April, 2005.

The Dynamic of Party Unity Action-Reaction Models of Congressional Behavior 1789-2001. With

Adam McGlynn. Presented at Midwest Political Science Association April, 2004.

Retrospective Evaluations and the Election Cycle. American Political Science Association Annual

Meeting, Philadelphia 2003. A similar version of the paper was also presented at the European

Consortium of Political Research annual conference in Marburg, Germany, September 2003.

Leaders or Lunch? Influences on Elites Views of Presidents in Fragile Democracies. The

International Studies Association W est, October 2003.

The Functional Presidency: Dynamic Models of White House Staffing. The Midwest Political

Science Association Annual Meeting, April 2003.

Foreign Policy Behavior and Fractional Integration. Peace Science Society Atlanta, October, 2001.

Panel Studies of Partisanship. American Political Science Association Annual Meeting, San

Francisco, CA, September 2001.

Partisan Instability in the British Household Panel Survey. Conference on the British Household

Panel Survey. Colchester, England, July 2001.

The Dynamics of Congressional and Presidential Approval. Center for American Political Studies,

Harvard University, April, 2001.

The Effects of Conceptions of Identity and the Terminal Community: Why Economics isn t All that

Matters in Support for the European Union. Midwest Political Science Association Annual Meeting,

2001.

In Europe, but not Europeans - The Impact of National Identity on Public Support for the European

Union. European Consortium of Political Research, Joint Sessions of Workshops. Grenoble, France

April 2001.

New Models of Party Support in Great Britain. Public Choice Society and Economic Science

Association. San Antonio, Texas, March 2001.

The Long Memory of the British Electorate. International Conference on Social Science

Methodology, Cologne, Germany, October 2000.

Statistical Inference and the Use of Aggregated Time Series. Midwest Political Science Association

Annual Meeting, 2000.

Intervention Analysis and ARFIMA Modelling. American Political Science Association Annual

Meeting, 1999.

Long Memory, Fractional Cointegration, and Political Modelling. Midwest Political Science

Association Annual Meeting, 1999.

Who Votes Green: A Comparative Analysis of Green Party Supporters in Germany, France, and

Great Britain. Conference of the South-W estern Political Science Association, 1999.

Long Memory Processes in the Supreme Court: A Dynamic Analysis 1888-1989. Conference of the

Southern Political Science Association, Atlanta, GA, 1998.

You Must Remember This: Dealing with Long Memory in Political Analyses. American Political

Science Association Annual Meeting, Boston, MA, 1998.

The Long and the Short of It: Long Memory Processes in Political Analysis. Midwest Political

Science Association Annual Meeting, Chicago, IL, 1998.

Party Organization and Voter Turnout in the Industrialized Democracies. Midwest Political Science

Association Annual Meeting, Chicago, IL, 1998.

Comparing Competing Explanation of Voter Turnout in Industrialized Democracies. Midwest

Political Science Association Annual Meeting, Chicago, IL, 1997.

INVITED LECTURES

Ohio State University (spring 2006) with ITV presentation to time series classes at OSU, University of

Minnesota, University of Illinois, and University of Wisconsin; Columbia University (2007); Louisiana

State University (2009); Nottingham University, UK (2010); Trinity College Dublin, Ireland (2010);

University of Manchester, UK (2010); University of Essex, UK (2010); Nuffield College, Oxford (2010);

Texas A&M University (2010); Duke University (2011).

REFERENCES

Upon Request

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