Consultancy for a firm/organization for Assessment of Infrastructure

IFPRI is seeking a firm/organization for assessment of infrastructure development in the eastern Nile in a changing climate. This consultancy is applicable to firms/organizations only.

Background:

With climate change expected to affect the inter- and intra-annual variabilities of the Nile streamflow, the economic costs and benefits of infrastructure development in the Nile are uncertain. Several dams and irrigation projects are planned for construction in the Eastern Nile Basin. The economy-wide and transboundary effects of these projects under various climate change scenarios should be evaluated to maximize benefits and minimize costs.

The International Food Policy Research Institute under the CGIAR Initiative on NEXUS Gains is aiming to conduct an integrated assessment of the impacts of infrastructure development in the Eastern Nile Basin on riparian countries using hydrological, river system, and economy-wide modeling. Specifically, the research aims to assess the economy-wide impact of potential infrastructure development in the Eastern Nile on Sudan and Egypt due to changes to hydropower production and irrigation and municipal/industrial water supplies under climate change.

Methodology:

The firm/organization will use a combination of rainfall-runoff, river system, and economy-wide modeling to assess the impacts of infrastructure development in the Eastern Nile Basin under CMIP6 climate change scenarios. The river system model will be able to quantify how existing and new infrastructure affects flow regimes, water availability, and hydropower generation.

Computable general equilibrium (CGE) models will be developed for Sudan and Egypt to assess the economic impacts of Eastern Nile infrastructure development on key economic sectors. The CGE models will be driven by economic growth projections under various shared socioeconomic pathways, such that the assumptions that drive the CGE models are aligned with the rainfall-runoff model. The CGE model will be configured to be recursive dynamic and shall include irrigation and rainfed sectors disaggregated by crops and hydropower sectors. The rainfall-runoff, river system, and CGE models will be integrated based on a cascade structure, whereby the rainfall-runoff model is run first for various scenarios, then the river system model is run, followed by the CGE model. Given upstream/downstream dynamics, the CGE models will need to be run consecutively.

Deliverables:

The project aims to produce two research papers on the following topics:

Spatiotemporal assessment of the hydrological impacts of climate change on Nile streamflow and evapotranspiration

Assessing the river system and economy-wide impacts of infrastructure development on Sudan and Egypt under climat change.

Specific activities:

1.

Acquiring and pre-processing CMIP6 climate change projections

2.

Developing, calibrating, and validating a rainfall-runoff model of the Nile Basin

3.

Assessing the spatiotemporal dynamics of the impacts of climate change on the naturalized streamflow, temperature, and evapotranspiration of the Nile Basin

4.

Drafting paper #1

5.

Reviewing and editing paper #1

6.

Developing, calibrating, and validating a daily river system model for the Nile Basin, including Ethiopia, Sudan, and Egypt

7.

Assisting IFPRI in developing and modifying CGE models for Sudan and Egypt that would use the outputs of the river system model for integrated assessment

8.

Running the CGE model considering shocks on different sectors representing the impacts of infrastructure development

9.

Drafting paper #2

10.

Reviewing and editing paper #2

Duration Period: Receipt of signed contract to December 31, 2024.

Qualifications:

Supervisor: PhD in relevant field (water resources, hydrological modeling, agricultural economics); demonstrated research expertise in hydro-economic modeling

In-depth expertise on the Eastern Nile River system

Support staff: Experience with data collection and analysis, development of papers and reports

Demonstrated experience with preparing research papers

Application criteria:

· Please submit a financial proposal with your online application

· Please upload 1-2 research papers that demonstrated experience in developing and publishing scientific research papers focused on the Eastern Nile Basin

· Only firms/organizations are eligible

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*We are unable to respond to every applicant individually, only the selected firm/organization will be contacted*