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Forecasting Manager

Bridgewater, New Jersey, United States
February 01, 2018

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Edward J. Garvey


Bridgewater, NJ 908-***-****


Offer 20+ years of expertise in optimizing products in the global pharmaceutical market by leading expert analysis, demand planning, modelling and forecasting. Leverage quantitative analysis of markets, managed care, pricing, resource allocation, and product uptake for Rx and OTC products. Articulate liaison and advisor to cross-functional leaders and stakeholders.

Leadership Strategic Planning Sales and Operations Planning (S&OP) Demand Planning, Forecasting & Modeling

P&L Budgets Product Pricing Market Research & Analysis Stakeholder Relations Presentations Brand Planning

Product Launch Planning Life Cycle Strategy Capital Planning SKU Rationalization Price Volume Analysis Situational Analysis Rx to OTC Switch Generic Intrusion Analysis Product Mix Analysis Cost /Contract/Gross to Net Accounting


Garvey Strategix, Inc. – Bridgewater, NJ 2010 – Present

Garvey Strategix, Inc provides specialized project management, forecast consulting, brand optimization, and strategy consultant.


Hired as consultant to improve Sales Forecasting Demand model primarily for three U.S. Neurology key launch products/life cycle events. Acted as key team member in strategy/planning sessions for Marketing/Finance/Production. Performed strategic scenarios with Rx demand models leveraging IMS NPA and NSP data, integrating market research data, internal sales, market access, unit data, and key assumptions; determined impacts on expected revenues, profits, rebates and pricing structures.

Revamped sales forecasting Rx demand model, facilitating Belviq, Fycompa and Banzel demand planning; updated to include new brand events and update all aspects of pricing. Established and quantified risk analysis for potential event forecast. Provided leadership with updated fully comprehensive model with all assumptions and predicted values clearly stated for full transparency.

Provided updated IMS NPA and NSP data to auditors and other internal stakeholders for regulatory purposes and fulfilled all reporting requirements.

Surpassed scope of contract by developing Fycompa line extension forecast to support NDA submission.

FOUNDER/VICE PRESIDENT, SALES & OPERATIONS – Graphics Business (Family Business)

Managed sales, operations, strategic direction and Installation oversight. Monitored and managed pricing, relative to cost of goods and profit targets. Forged lasting relationships via Business Networking International to facilitate business growth.

Turned around franchise, propelling overall sales up by 45%. Attracted new business by strategizing comprehensive approach emphasizing quality products at reasonable prices in aggressive timeframes.

Won Historic Association Review Board (HARB) Achievement Award and Best of Bucks Mont Award.


IMS Health is the largest vendor of U.S. physician prescribing data; provides healthcare information/services/technology.

Recruited to lead global/U.S. client engagements. Coordinated global primary, secondary and managed care access research to develop custom models in U.S. and EU5 with IMS NPA & NSP historical data, product profiles, pricing and analog components. Presented to leadership and at industry forecasting conferences. Mentored associates and provided advice on historic market events.

Confirmed low market potential of Daxas for COPD. Delivered forecast model for drug, under evaluation for long-term potential launch, for U.S./5EU regions, on time/under budget. Detailed potential with summary results/ research.

Orchestrated patient, physician and MC/payer research in six countries.

Developed model for NPA Rx market share, units and net/gross revenue by country over time.

Recommended full promotional support to generated market domination and $500M+ in revenues; devised ground-breaking model for ProAir HFA (conversion from CFC) for asthma treatment, employing series of analogs to narrate story of anticipated events and results. Delivered high-visibility projects – Amgen, Teva Specialty and Axcan; created marketing strategy for Aspirin IV.

SENIOR MANAGER, FORECASTING ALTANA Pharma (Now Takeda Pharmaceutical Co.) – NJ 2005 – 2007

ALTANA developed/marketed respiratory/gastrointestinal products in the U.S.; acquired by Nycomed, and later Takeda.

Strategized and executed master plan for Respiratory franchise for all forecasting deliverables. Governed all strategic planning for U.S. market; and assisted on S&OP and due diligence data delivery. Served as lead demand forecaster for strategic model on core team for Asthma/COPD when presenting to Key Stakeholders. Researched managed care assumptions, pricing, resource allocation and product uptake analogs for Rx products.

Designed ALTANA forecasting function; supported products during entry to branded pharmaceutical markets for Asthma, COPD and Allergy. Created models to disseminate information to all global/local functions/partners.

Established/maintained brand revenue models for ciclesonide Molecule (multiple markets) and roflumilast/Daxas utilizing IMS NPA & NSP Data, Inventory assumptions. Pricing algorithms, and primary market research variables.

Supported Omnair/Alvesco/Daxas launch readiness, using lessons learned, market research and launch dynamics.

Key role in forging current and future views of Gastrointestinal, Asthma and Allergy markets by representing Strategy and Commercial Development on multiple global and alliance teams.

Strengthened cross-functional communication on brand progress by establishing ALTANA S&OP process.


Sanofi-Aventis U.S. LLC manufactures, markets and/or distributes more than 71 drugs in the U.S.

Hired to lead Forecasting & Information Services group and implement systems/processes to support all major brands, following merger. Strategized 5 and 10-year plans. Controlled budget. Oversaw team supporting U.S. Commercial Pharma business (>$6 Billion) sales. Led S&OP process; directed Information Services (IMS data and similar) for all marketed/newly launched products.

Built Aventis attractiveness as merger target of Sanofi by establishing S&OP and Executive S&OP process, rolled out to EU5 countries, Canada, Brazil and Japan. Influenced stakeholder buy-in; adjusted models and resources to continually improve support of US brands.

Saved billions of dollars in revenue and facilitated Allegra category leadership. Key role in evaluating Rx to OTC switch scenarios for non-sedating antihistamine market; advised to retain Allegra as a prescription product.

Aided Aventis to meet profit targets; instrumental in guiding Nasacort CFC/HFA and Nasacort AQ, as expert on divestiture of non-key products (Azmacort, Intal and Tilade) in Respiratory market.

Enhanced management forecast process. Focused on product demand, ROI, inventory management and results.

Boosted customer service levels while reducing inventory by implementing global SAP APO Demand Planning.


MANAGER, FORECASTING & SYSTEMS Roche Laboratories, Inc. – Nutley, NJ 1996 – 2000

Established and led Sales & Operations Planning sessions and Executive reviews of Budget, 5 Year Plan, and Latest Estimates for entire US Rx portfolio.

Launched numerous successful products, including Posicor, Xenical, Tamiflu, Zenapax and Versed Syrup; propelled Rocephin, Cellcept, Roferon-A, Invirase, Fortovase and others, including Valium, Klonopin and Coreg.

Facilitated profit increase by influencing change in pricing, resource allocation and promotional mix.

Enabled evaluation of Boniva in Rheumatoid Arthritis/Osteoporosis. Enacted portfolio business assessment model with global team.

Drove promotion mix optimization, including DTC program, for Accutane by analyzing ROI and creating Patient Tracking System.

Selected with my team to represent U.S. pharma marketing as Super Users (for SAP R3) business planning prototyping.


Master of Business Administration, Accounting Fairleigh Dickinson University – Madison, NJ

Bachelor of Arts, Economics Rutgers University – New Brunswick, NJ

Sandler Sales Training Sandler Systems, Inc.- Newtown, PA

Executive MBA, Healthcare/Pharmaceutical Tuck School of Business, Dartmouth College – Hanover, NH


Presenter Institute of Business Forecasting (IBF) – Orlando, FL

Conference Member Pharmaceutical Market Research Group (PMRG) and Pharmaceutical Mgmt. Sciences Assoc. (PMSA)

U.S. Representative Global S&OP (SAP APO) Conference – Paris, France

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