WALTER LIERMAN, Ph.D.

***** *** ***** ***** . **** Linn, Oregon 97068

503-***-**** . abigcd@r.postjobfree.com

EXPERIENCED ECONOMIST / DATA ANALYSIS

ECONOMETRICS AND SAS PROGRAMMING

TECHNICAL SKILLS

. Experienced SAS programmer.

- Extract, transform, and load coding of existing

data sources and formats to create

SAS datasets for use by fraud analysis teams

- reviewed and diagnosed large SAS programs

(several thousand lines of code),

including macros and SQL code to correct denied

medical claims for

reimbursement

- created ETG cost-of-illness study using SAS and

SQL code extracting data

from Oracle

- created multi-variate statistical models

- developed ARIMA time series models

- applied SAS Proc Nlin to estimate Bass

diffusion curves for energy efficiency

programs for California utilities

- prepared forecasts using econometric models

using SAS ETS procedures

> Other knowledge and experience using SAS and other

statistical software:

- SAS Enterprise Miner training

- Excel-based data mining tool (XLMiner)

- Eviews for multi-variate regression model

development

> Proactively pursue continuous self-improvement in SAS

programming, Excel-based

reporting and dashboard techniques, JMP statistical

analysis, and data-mining

. Experienced managing forecasting process and consulting with

stakeholders:

- proposed decision analysis

model approach to forecasting process to

to embody stakeholders' risk and

uncertainty with forecasts

- provided research and gathered expert opinions

- developed assumptions to drive forecasts

- facilitated buy-in and receptivity to forecasts

by including relevant

stakeholders' inputs, knowledge, and assumptions

- presented forecast results to senior managers and

directors including

European and domestic management

- demonstrated experience in developing forecasts

using SAS.

- developed market growth forecasts for Kaiser

Permanente for operating

budgets and long-term capital budgeting plans

- provided monthly reconciliation

of actual results to forecast estimates

for senior management

- gained early buy-in

understanding, and agreement of forecast scenarios by

stakeholders; as result,

decreased forecast process at least two weeks by

securing early buy-in by

stakeholders

. Experienced in linear optimization models development, scenario

analysis, spreadsheet

modeling

EDUCATION

University of Arizona, Tucson, Arizona - Ph.D., Economics, 1983

University of Arizona, Tucson, Arizona - Master of Science, Ag. Economics

Concordia College, Seward, Nebraska - Bachelor of Science, Education

PROFESSIONAL EXPERIENCE

The Economics Group, LLC, West Linn, Oregon . 1996 - Present

Principal / Consulting Economist

Primary emphasis of this independent consulting enterprise is to

provide analytical economic and business services in the following

areas: SAS programming, statistical modeling and forecasting,

analysis of results for decision-making, and presentation to senior

management and forensic economic litigation support.

Consulting Work Experience:

. KAISER-PERMANENTE HEALTH PLAN - NORTHWEST REGION, Portland, OR.

SAS contract in Risk Planning and Program Analysis.

- Analyzed complex SAS programs (several thousand

lines) for errors.

- Successfully corrected programming and resubmitted

claims to Oregon Health Plan resulting

in multiple thousands of dollars in claims

reimbursement.

- Utilized SAS - base and macro programming - and SQL

in large, complex programs that met both Kaiser

Health Plan specifications but also satisfied HIPAA reporting

specifications, i.e.,

forms 837I and 837P.

Length: 6-month contract

. UNITED HEALTH GROUP-INGENIX, Eden Prairie, MN.

SAS contract in SAS ETL programming.

- Provided SAS data ETL coding from existing data

sources and formats-claim, member,

and provider datasets-into SAS datasets for use by

forensic fraud and abuse analysis

teams in identifying questionable billing and

reimbursement patterns.

- Questionable billing and service patterns were analyzed with SPSS

data mining software.

Length: 6-month contract

. BRACCO DIAGNOSTICS, INC., Princeton, NJ.

Econometric modeling and analysis.

- Directed project developing predictive models of

demand drivers for low osmolar

contrast medium (LOCM).

- Analyzed the relevant statistical measures to

determine best fit models, and presented

results to directors of European and U.S.

operations for operational forecasting. Involved

stakeholders early on to achieve buy-in and to

facilitate process.

Length: 6-month contract

. MANAGED EDGE CONSULTING - New York, New York.

Health economics; pharmacoeconomic consulting.

- Developed and presented proposals to pharmaceutical

clients: 1) strategies to position

new drug products for the managed care market

penetration; 2) strategies to reposition

drugs in competitive therapeutic markets.

- Developed and presented proposals stressing the

cost-effectiveness of pharmaceuticals in

the treatment of illness and disease.

- Prepared project proposals for pharmaceutical clients: Aventis

and Pfizer.

Length: 15-month contract

. REGENCE BLUECROSS BLUESHIELD - Portland, OR.

Health services research; cost of illness research, analysis,

and report; predictive modeling of

cost drivers.

- analyzed of top 25 episode treatment groups (ETGs)

and associated costs for commercial

line of business analyzing historical claims data and

produced cost of illness report for medical

director and senior staff

Length: 11-month contract

. OREGON HEALTH SCIENCES UNIVERSITY - Portland, OR.

Director; survey research project on mental health and

substance abuse benefits in business.

- Directed survey project of private and public

employers' human resource manager's

opinions on value of mental health and substance

abuse benefits offered to employees

relative to other benefits.

- Publications from study:

. McFarland BH, Lierman WK, Penner NR, McCamant LE, Zani B. "Benefits

Managers' Opinions Regarding Behavioral Healthcare Benefits". Journal

of Addictive Diseases. 2003; 22(2): 15-29.

. McFarland BH, Lierman WK, Penner NR, McCamant LE, Zani B. "Benefits

Managers' Views on MH/SA Raise Cause for Concern". Behavioral

Healthcare Tomorrow. 2002; 11(4): 22-31.

Length: 15-month contract

. UNIVERSITY OF WASHINGTON, Seattle, WA.

Health services research.

- Researched and wrote cost effectiveness analysis

material for SAMSHA funded research

proposal.

- Wrote detailed section on cost effectiveness analysis to measure the

cost and outcomes

of alternative therapeutic approaches for treatment and counseling

services to

individuals with AIDS/HIV.

- The Center was approved for funding and was the only

site in the multi-site study to have used

CEA.

Length: 3-month contract

. HEWLETT-PACKARD, INC. - Vancouver, WA.

- Provided analysis in commercial printer operations.

- Analyzed resource use - paper, ink and toner - by type

and model of computer globally.

Length: 6-month contract

. OTHER ANALYTICAL PROJECTS - Portland, OR.

1996-2000, Research and Financial Analysis.

- Consulted on the potential impact of formulary

adoption by the Oregon Healthplan.

- Financial analyses: financial condition of

participating healthplans participating in the

Oregon Healthplan 1994 - 1998; quarterly financial

analyses of HMO and PPO medical

serving the Portland metropolitan area; and, financial

multi-state comparison of HMO

plans, 2000.

Length: periodic; from 2-months for quarterly financials to 6-

month Oregon Health Plan analysis

Career Note: Conducts on-going work in forensic economics and

litigation services.

Often involves complex financial analysis of

stock options, fringe benefits,

and other financial losses. Also provides

expert testimony as to economic and

business losses.

Length: 1996 - present

Employment - FT, non-consulting:

Economist and Forecaster, Kaiser Permanente Health Plan,

Portland, OR. 1991 - 1995

- Forecast annual growth in membership and presented

forecast findings to senior management.

- Incorporated decision analysis methods into forecasting

process resulting in more rapid

management buy-in to forecast.

- Provided regular and ad hoc reports to sales and

marketing and medical economics

departments.

OTHER EXPERIENCE - ENVIRONMENT AND ENERGY

Environment

. Legacy Health Systems and Portland State University Systems

Engineering Department

collaboration, Portland, OR.

- Initiated collaborative effort with one of the most

successful medical recycling

programs in the nation, Legacy Health Systems ($4

million in savings)

- Drew attention to impact of petroleum costs on

healthcare sector both directly and

indirectly through supplies and materials.

- Focused on recycling and sustainability issues in the

healthcare industry.

Length: 12-month consulting project

. Quantec, LLC, Portland, OR, consulting position

- Participant on RFP teams for:

- Lead abatement proposals (2).

- Municipality water demand modeling

proposal.

- Carbon offset measurement

from investment in CFL lighting.

Length: 18-month consulting position

Energy

. Titus Energy Management Services, Milwaukee, WI.

- Assisted in developing rate structure for

Wisconsin township converting

existing high pressure sodium (HPS)

street lights to LED fixtures.

Length: May 2010

. Quantec, Portland, OR, contract position

- Estimated Bass diffusion curves measuring rate of

adoption of energy efficient

appliances and technology among California

utilities using SAS Proc NLin.

- Calculation of CDD and HDD in service territory of

large electric utility.

- Assisted in preparing content for discussion of

natural gas unbundling issues for

presentation by attorneys for PEPCO.

Length: 18-month consulting position

Earlier in career

. Arizona Public Service, Co., Phoenix, AZ.

- Developed load forecasts, by customer type, by

month, for both

electric and natural gas operations.

- Tested alternative rate design impacts on revenue

by customer class.

- Prepared written responses, as needed, for company

witnesses during rate

case hearings.

TEACHING SKILLS AND EXPERIENCE AND PRESENTATIONS

Teaching

. Teach graduate and under-graduate forecasting,

econometrics, microeconomics,

sustainability, resource economics, and corporate finance, 1988-

present.

- Currently adjunct faculty in on-line MBA in

Sustainable "Green" Business program at

Marylhurst University and teach courses in

the program.

- Served as member of quantitative curriculum

course development team developing

courses in quantitative analysis for on-

line Sustainable MBA program.

Current courses developed by the quant team:

. Research and Quantitative Methods

Emphasis on quantitative methods, descriptive

statistics, computer applications.

. Modeling and Decision-Making

Emphasis on managerial decision theory and

advanced modeling techniques

focusing upon managing under uncertainty and

risk.

. Natural Resource Economics and Sustainability

Focus on the interdependence between human societies,

their economies, and

the natural ecosystems supporting them. Includes

environmental and ecological

economics.

Other colleges and universities that I currently serve or have served as

adjunct instructor:

Arizona State Univ., Washington State Univ. - Vancouver, Univ. of

Portland,

Concordia University, George Fox University, Willamette University,

Portland

State University, Marylhurst University

Presentations

. Presenter, Topic: Benefits and Costs of Climate Change

Mitigation, presented April 10,

2008 as part of Converging Environmental Crises: A Teach-in on

Energy, Climate Change,

Water, Agriculture, and Population, Presented by College of

Public Health, The Ohio State

University, webinar.

Presentation focused upon the implications of the following in an

accounting of

benefits and costs:

- externalities

- production trade-offs

- technological innovation

. Developed and presented pharmacoeconomic workshops for

Pfizer clinical education

coordinators' managed care clients.

Topics covered

- Basic modeling methods such as cost-utility, cost-benefit, cost-

effectiveness

analysis

- Basic measures of healthcare services and their perspectives such as

effectiveness (outcomes research), efficacy (clinical research),

efficiency (pharmacoeconomics) and allocative (healthcare economics)

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